Reporter: Anne Barker

Peter Cave: The Brussels based International Crisis Group has warned that a United Nations report on the political and security crisis in East Timor will be explosive and may touch off another round of serious violence. The UN report is due out within days, and is expected to name those responsible for the recent turmoil.

The Crisis Group, led by former Australian foreign Minister Gareth Evans, has also called on the President Xanana Gusmao to think the unthinkable and step aside from politics in the interests of his nation.

Anne Barker reports.

Anne Barker: It's six months since East Timor first descended into violence, with riots sparked by the sacking of nearly 600 soldiers. In the months since then, around 30 people have been killed, a Prime Minister has resigned and tens of thousands of people still live in refugee camps in Dili.

And as the country still struggles to get back on its feet, the International Crisis Group has warned that the worst period in East Timor's short independent history is not over yet.

On Radio Australia, the group's South-East Asia Director Sidney Jones said East Timor would remain in limbo as it awaits the results of a United Nations inquiry into the recent turmoil.

Sidney Jones: Everyone is waiting to see who is going to be held responsible for different incidents and no one wants to take any moves to, for example, move towards restructuring the security services or look towards prosecuting anybody who was responsible for anything that happened from January until the present, until those findings come out.

Anne Barker: The ICG pinpoints numerous causes for East Timor's crisis, including years of unresolved infighting in the ruling Fretilin Party, the politicisation of the country's security forces and the rivalries between an authoritarian Fretilin and the largely powerless President, Xanana Gusmao.

It's widely expected the UN report will sheet home the blame to as many as 100 senior political and security figures, and recommend many face criminal charges. Sidney Jones says the findings will be explosive.

Sidney Jones: If it suggests that a people in the Alkatiri camp, for example, were responsible for some incidents, they're going to be very unhappy.

If Mari Alkatiri himself is exonerated, people who believe that he or Fretilin more generally were involved in distributing arms to civilians, they're going to be very unhappy even though their own analysis of the situation may be flawed.

There's also the problem that people who are satisfied that the names that the Commission gives are in fact the correct ones, are going to expect that justice be done instantly. And it's not at all clear how justice is going to be done when you've got a very, very problematic court system in Dili.

Anne Barker: Among its recommendations, the report calls on both Xanana Gusmao and Mari Alkatiri, who's still the Secretary-General of Fretilin, to leave politics altogether to allow new leaders to emerge.

Jose Ramos Horta is in Australia this week and says Xanana Gusmao said only recently that he didn't plan to stand again at next year's elections. But he says what the report's authors think is best for East Timor doesn't necessarily match reality.

Jose Ramos Horta: I have been travelling throughout the country since the crisis, every conceivable place you can think of, neighbourhoods, even talking with the gangs, with youth. I have not found one single individual in the country that says Xanana Gusmao should not run. Quite the contrary. As recently as a few days ago people were telling me we must tell Xanana he has to stand for a second term, but he seems to be determined not to.

Anne Barker: It was Jose Ramos Horta who asked the United Nations in June to hold its inquiry into the recent crisis, but unlike many, the Prime Minister says he's confident the UN report won't lead to more violence.

Jose Ramos Horta: I'm confident that we will react to it with serenity, because the vast majority of people don't want violence and the political leaders obviously in the last few weeks have shown responsibility and maturity, so I'm more confident than some observers who have expressed, and legitimately, rightly so, some concern about the possibility of violence.

Peter Cave: East Timor's Prime Minister, Jose Ramos Horta in Canberra.