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Young nation wrestles with its 'black gold'

Source
South China Morning Post - August 30, 2005

In the last of his series on East Timor, Simon Montlake looks at the Thorny topic of oil and gas

His morning catch sold, fisherman Antonio Ximenes folds his homemade nets into the boat resting on the windswept beach.

As the harsh afternoon sun glints off the cobalt waves, he listens to a stranger's question: What does he think about his nation's untapped oil and gas reserves, said to be worth billions?

"I hear them on the radio and television talking about the money, but I never know where the money goes," he says. "Maybe the government can explain it to you. We're out here every day, fishing, selling our catch. The government doesn't give us anything."

Deciding on the future of the petroleum assets that lie off the coast of East Timor is a key political and economic question facing the leaders of the world's newest nation.

If handled correctly, the revenue generated should provide a long-term source of income for East Timor, which gained independence in 2002 after a UN-run referendum in August 1999.

The largest offshore field – claimed by Australia and East Timor – is estimated to hold US$50 billion worth of natural gas and oil at today's prices.

That's a huge windfall for a country of 925,000 people with the lowest per capita income in Asia – just US$366 a year. One in three households depends on subsistence farming, and the country's only export crop is coffee.

But recent history is littered with examples of oil-rich nations that floundered as corruption, waste and conflict turned prosperity into a pipe dream. Economists say developing countries with abundant natural resources often do a worse job of raising living standards than those without them.

Timorese leaders say they are determined not to repeat the mistakes of other developing countries by squandering resources. "Being wealthy is one thing. Being petroleum-wealthy is extremely dangerous because that's more of a curse than a blessing," deputy natural resources minister Jose Teixeira said.

To guard against these pitfalls, East Timor has created a petroleum fund - audited externally – to manage its oil revenue. All expenditure will go through the national budget and be subject to spending limits. Health, education and social projects will take priority.

Most of the petroleum money, though, will be invested offshore in US government bonds to create a cushion for the future.

Officials say the aim is to rebuild the country's shattered economy, which has depended on foreign aid since the bloody Indonesian pullout in 1999. Without a strong private sector, petroleum dollars are liable to suck in imports, drive up prices and deter exports.

The cautious approach is something of a mystery to ordinary Timorese, who ask why the promised oil riches are not flowing to them.

John Soares counts himself among the lucky ones: he supports his family of five on a monthly turnover of US$1,000 from a stall in Dili selling imported jeans and shirts.

But Mr Soares, 27, doubts oil money will trickle in anytime soon. "If the government has lots of money, it's only going to them, not to the people, so we will never develop this country," he sighs.

Activists in Dili are concerned about the temptation to dip into the oil funds, as well as the government's commitment to transparency. East Timor's new ombudsman has already been given 66 suspected graft cases to investigate. Three of these allegedly originated in the office of the prime minister, who has taken personal charge of the oil sector.

"Without fighting this corruption which is emerging now, it will be difficult to guarantee how the oil and gas money will be spent," said Christopher Samson, director of anti-corruption watchdog Labeh.

While the debate over how to spend the money continues, East Timor is wrangling with Australia over who owns the offshore petroleum.

One joint development area is already pumping gas under a revenue-sharing formula between the two countries. East Timor is believed to have received about US$244 million so far this year from this production area. But a much larger gas project is on hold as the two sides grapple over sea boundaries.

Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri has lobbied hard for East Timor to not only receive a generous share of revenue but also to ensure it is chosen as the location for the downstream processing of the gas.

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