Bill Guerin, Jakarta – Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's willingness to go the last mile on Aceh appears to have won the day in Helsinki, where government negotiators and separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) rebels have finally reached a tentative peace accord to end 30 years of fighting. The president had made settlement of the northernmost province's conflict, which has claimed nearly 15,000 lives, one of his government's priorities.
Former US president Bill Clinton, the United Nations' envoy for tsunami relief, said in May that Acehnese had told him repeatedly that "we'll never really be able to build the future we want until the civil conflict is over". Last year's December 26 tsunami left more than 131,000 Acehnese dead.
Renewed efforts to reach a peaceful solution were prompted by the need for international aid to flow as foreign governments, non-government organizations and individuals all over the world pledged billions of dollars in tsunami relief.
The talks in Helsinki, which began last Tuesday, were the fifth held in the Finnish capital this year, and had been considered the last chance to bring an end to bloodshed in the province.
In reaching a deal there was a dramatic shift in stances on both sides. Deeply suspicious of each other after years of fighting, neither side had stated its political stance towards the other in earlier pre-tsunami talks. GAM gave up its demand for full independence and said it would disarm its 5,000 fighters, while the government announced it would withdraw its troops from the province once the rebels handed in their weapons.
A peace deal collapsed in May 2003 amid bitter recriminations after Jakarta arrested rebel negotiators and militias attacked foreign peace monitors, forcing them to abandon the province. This prompted the government to launch a major military offensive to crush the rebels.
Post tsunami considerations
The challenges surrounding the rebuilding of Aceh are monumental. The economy is destroyed, and huge numbers of survivors are jobless as well as homeless, living in tented camps. Five hundred towns and villages were affected by the killer waves and 116,880 homes were damaged or destroyed. Infrastructure was wiped out in many areas: nearly 1,000 government buildings, 665 schools and 1,525 kilometers of roads were destroyed. A US$5 billion reconstruction program is now underway, involving hundreds of foreigners.
GAM declared a unilateral ceasefire immediately after the tsunami struck. This was followed by a non-negotiated and informal ceasefire declared by both the Indonesian military (TNI) and GAM. The TNI, however, continued with a series of major operations against GAM, and brought in thousands of extra troops.
Rebel leaders were quick to capitalize on the presence of large numbers of foreigners in the province to sue for peace on their terms, which at the time included a non-negotiable demand for independence.
Historic shift
Hasan di Tiro, who founded GAM, had been particularly intransigent on the question of independence. Di Tiro, whom GAM considers to be the rightful head of state of Aceh, and Malik Mahmud, its prime minister and head of government, along with other members of the group's leadership, live in exile in Sweden.
Fearing that allowing Aceh to break away would encourage separatism elsewhere in the sprawling archipelago, Indonesia has insisted that any settlement must be based on a "special autonomy" law it passed for the province in 2001. This package has, however, never been properly implemented. The province's affairs continue to be directed from Jakarta.
Nonetheless, the GAM leadership agreed last week to drop their demands for independence, a stance which their political advisor, Australian academic Damien Kingsbury, who was part of the Acehnese delegation in Helsinki, described as "huge, a fundamental shift in position".
Calling on Jakarta to embrace basic democratic principles, Kingsbury said, "We're really at not just a critical juncture, but a historic juncture."
Political dimensions
The remaining stumbling block was then the issue of political representation. The draft accord now hinges on an 11th-hour agreement by Jakarta to allow GAM to form its own political party. Current electoral legislation does not allow for provincial parties – a party must have representation in at least half of the country's 32 provinces, and have its main party offices in Jakarta.
The laws are designed to prevent provinces breaking away from the central government. East Timor, for example, a former Portuguese colony, gained full independence in May 2002 after more than two years of UN stewardship, which followed a quarter of a century of Indonesian occupation.
Negotiators said full details of the accord would not be released before the formal signing in Helsinki on August 15, two days before Indonesia's Independence Day. This allows time for the government to seek approval from parliament for changes in the law to accommodate the agreements.
Under the draft, the rebels will be allowed to run in local elections, but not in national elections. This will allow them a measure of self-governance. "Although we will not readily allow the establishment of local political parties, what is important is that they have political rights, that along with the other elements in Aceh they have opportunities to take part in the existing political process," the president said in Jakarta at the weekend.
Vice President Muhammad Jusuf Kalla, who leads the Golkar Party, the largest faction in parliament, will probably support a move to change the law. But nationalist and military factions, which remain deeply distrustful of the separatist rebels, will likely resist such changes.
If the government wins the day, former separatists will be able to stand in local and provincial elections next April, and Aceh-based parties will be set up, enabling GAM to enter politics.
An end to abuse?
Human Rights Watch and other groups have documented a catalogue of abuses – torture, rape and summary executions – most, though by no means all, committed by security forces. The majority of the victims of the fighting have been civilians.
Though the TNI has lost some of its powers since the downfall of autocrat Suharto in 1998, it continues to retain and exert much influence, especially in the regions. About 50,000 troops are currently deployed in Aceh.
GAM enjoyed a surge in popularity when the military engaged in acts of violence, but the rebels themselves have a long history of attacking non-military facilities or strategic economic targets, mostly in areas populated by non-Acehnese, particularly Javanese migrants, and forcing villagers to undergo indoctrination.
Opportunities for profiteering from drugs, prostitution, piracy, illegal logging, human trafficking, weapons sales and protection rackets were exploited to the full by elements of both sides.
Collecting extorted levies similar to those imposed by military personnel and local officials, such as security protection fees and property taxes, gave GAM the funds to buy weapons.
Hearts and minds
The government bureaucracy has been dominated by Javanese for decades. The sense of bitter economic injustice over what the Acehnese say is Jakarta's exploitation of the province's resources has been pivotal in securing support for GAM. More and more people turned to the separatists as an outlet for their dissatisfaction. Though they may have been less than enthusiastic about rule by GAM, the people of Aceh are deeply disheartened with Indonesia over its uninterrupted string of broken promises. The new deal, however, means that Aceh is likely to be offered a far greater share of revenues from its rich natural resources, including oil and gas.
The peace talks have been sharply criticized by some legislators, who claim that the Aceh issue is solely a domestic problem. They also criticize the fact that both sides have already agreed on European Union monitoring for any deal.
Though the government has also been slammed by many legislators for "internationalizing" the war by agreeing to the talks, a genuine peace, backed by a transparent rebuilding of a demilitarized province, would do more to win the hearts and minds of the Acehnese than the use of military might has achieved over three decades.
It could also provide a precedent for resolving another secessionist crisis in Papua, at the far eastern end of the vast archipelago.
[Bill Guerin, a Jakarta correspondent for Asia Times Online since 2000, has worked in Indonesia for 19 years in journalism and editorial positions. He has been published by the BBC on East Timor and specializes in business/economic and political analysis in Indonesia.]