Prangtip Daorueng, Jakarta – As Aceh's peace effort lurches toward a possible collapse, fear has taken over the persistent, if increasingly uncertain, hope that many from that restive Indonesian province had over recent months.
"We can only hope that God will protect us. We have no weapons to fight with anybody. We have nothing but him," said Juanda, an Acehnese human-rights activist in the provincial capital Banda Aceh. Like most Acehnese in the conflict-torn province, where Islam is the main pillar of life, faith is the only comfort now for Juanda, who uses one name.
Hasballah Saad, a former human-rights minister who is now a member of Indonesian Human Rights Commission, says there is still time for both sides to reconsider dialogue because they know that a military approach has not – and will not – work to address the causes of the 27-year-old separatist war in Aceh.
On Wednesday, the Acehnese community sent 55 members to try to meet with Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri to urge her to keep the dialogue on track. The group, however, failed to meet with the president because of her tight schedule. Juanda said the group's message was clear – stop the war and resume peace talks, based on the December 2002 ceasefire accord signed in Geneva between Jakarta and the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM).
The last round of talks was set for April, but was postponed. On Tuesday, Megawati repeated her instructions for the military to prepare to launch a campaign in Aceh given the lack of the progress in the peace efforts. This campaign, government officials said, would also be made up of humanitarian assistance, justice, and the restoration of local government services.
The desperation in Acehnese society is a far cry from the mood just a few months ago, when the ceasefire was signed in December. The agreement received strong support from foreign governments, including Japan which hosted an international meeting on Aceh's post-war development even before the accord was signed. At the time, all Acehnese celebrated with joy at the prospect of peace. But the ceasefire agreement now looks headed toward a short life.
Two months after the agreement, clashes between GAM and Indonesian troops resumed. Both sides have blamed each other for returning to violence since, and now the delay in the talks has driven the situation close to a deadlock.
The Indonesian government has now set a deadline for GAM to return to the negotiating table by Monday. The deadline came with the precondition that GAM, which has fought for independence from Indonesia since 1976, lay down its weapons and accept the special autonomy law and agree to remain a part of Indonesia. GAM, which pulled out of the meeting in Geneva on April 25, has rejected Jakarta's ultimatum but said it was prepared to meet with Jakarta again after Monday.
This intense political confrontation is quickly moving toward a resumption of armed struggle, which Acehnese civilians fear most. "Acehnese want to end this conflict through dialogue. We believe it is the only solution to the violence, but we now fear that there is a move toward an open war here," said Juanda.
The concern is such that early this month, the Japanese government, which has spent US$8 million on humanitarian aid to Aceh, sent a senior vice minister to Jakarta to discuss the progress of peace deal with the government.
There are other worrisome signs. Indonesian officials have been putting more emphasis on the issue of territorial integrity more than in the past and deploying more troops to Aceh.
Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono says the situation in Aceh has reached the point where it was threatening the Acehnese, as well as the territorial integrity of the Indonesian republic. He said Megawati would decide before Monday on the legal umbrella under which the combined government and military operations in Aceh would be launched. He said there are four possibilities: maintenance of law and order, a state of civil emergency, martial law, or war.
Susilo insisted that war and diplomacy could take place simultaneously, and that negotiations could still resume even when the military operation had started.
On Thursday, military chief General Endriartono Sutarto said 2,164 military personnel would be sent to Aceh the next day, to join some 26,000 troops and 14,000 police already stationed there. By next week, there are expected to be up to 50,000 military and police personnel in Aceh. Indonesian troops would be facing 8,000-10,000 GAM members who are believed to have some 8,000 weapons, including SS-1, AK-47 and AK-54 rifles, the English-language daily the Jakarta Post said.
GAM's forces operate under Muzakkir Manaf, who underwent Libyan special force training in 1980s. GAM is believed to have purchased weapons from groups in southern Thailand, Malaysia and low-ranking military officers in Aceh itself. It has also collected what are called nanggroe taxes from business people in Aceh to support their guerrilla activities. For its part, the armed forces has new heavy weapons from tanks to jet fighters, and the air force has undergone night-flight training specifically for operation in Aceh.
"We are not going to surrender even if Jakarta insists on sending military troops here. We are ready to face them," GAM spokesman Sofyan Dawood told the Jakarta Post recently.
In Aceh meanwhile, a source said some villagers, fearing a resumption of war, are storing weapons to protect themselves. "Be it knives or guns, they fear that the situation will be similar to [the] special-operations period, when nobody was safe under their own roofs," he said. This period was from 1987-98, during which virtual military rule under the Suharto government led to massive human-rights violations. At least 7,000 died people during that time and many went missing, activists say.
Stressed Hasballah: That period "is proof that military solution is not the right answer for Aceh because it did not stop the secessionist movement".