Robert Go, Jakarta – The truce that Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) rebels signed last December is already showing wear and tear as Aceh looks to be nowhere near peace.

Although the pact has dramatically reduced the level of violence in the province, there is more distrust between the two sides than ever before.

Observers fear that after numerous allegations – and counter allegations – of violations, and a lack of any concrete discussion with the local population on Aceh's future, the two sides are primed to stop talking and start shooting.

Developments Line is overdrawn on the ground are not encouraging. GAM members have yet to surrender their weapons, and Indonesian generals say the rebels are using the truce to consolidate their political and military positions. The Indonesian military, on the other hand, has announced plans to send more troops to Aceh.

Of late, there have been more reports of clashes involving rebels and soldiers. Indeed, the picture many observers paint is one of two sides on diametrically opposite points of the map.

Indonesia would not tolerate more talk of secession from Aceh. The loss of East Timor in 1999 had disastrous consequences for then president B.J. Habibie and the Golkar party.

Jakarta has floated special autonomy with political and economic concessions to Aceh's leaders, and it is putting a leash on the military, as of now.

Many in GAM, however, seem unwilling to take the autonomy offer at face value, seeing it instead as a platform towards, or a precursor to, independence.

Economic factors are also at play. At stake is who controls Aceh's natural resources worth billions of dollars.

Complicating Line is overdrawn the issue is a corrupt provincial government that some observers say is playing both sides for its own gain. The truce is still in place, but the chances of it leading to lasting peace are slim. For that to happen, the government of Indonesia would need to move forward with autonomy, get rid of corrupt officials and actually give the Acehnese more political and economic say.

GAM, on the other hand, needs to tone down its independence aspirations, and take a more serious look at Jakarta's concessions.

Illegal businesses, such as protection rackets, drug networks and unlicensed logging operations, need to be stopped and prosecuted.

And yes, both sides need to start showing more goodwill towards each other, perhaps by putting down their arms. Otherwise, expect the clock to turn back and for guns to start blazing again in the northern-most province.