Dean Yates, Jakarta – Indonesia will begin trials on Thursday over violence that swept East Timor in 1999, putting Jakarta under international scrutiny and testing the president's willingness to hold the military accountable for rights abuses.
Political analysts said despite constant pressure from key donors, none were likely to cut aid should the trials of 18 suspects, including three generals, be a sham because there was little stomach for withdrawing support from President Megawati Sukarnoputri or destabilising a nation vital to Asia's stability.
The trials over the destruction of East Timor when it voted to break free from Jakarta's rule have been plagued by frequent delays and widespread skepticism that justice would be served.
Hearings at a special human rights court kick off on Thursday with the former East Timor police chief General Timbul Silaen and an ex-governor of the territory, Abilio Soares, in the dock for separate sessions.
A court official said the two had been charged with crimes against humanity over a massacre of Timor refugees in a church in September 1999. Their particular charge carries a maximum penalty of 20 years jail.
It was unclear when the other suspects would take the stand. "They will be very closely watched," Sidney Jones, executive director of the Asia Division of the New York-based Human Rights Watch, said of the trials. "But if the defence team rides roughshod over the judges and prosecutors and use every legal loophole in the book to get these guys acquitted, no one is going to cut off aid to Indonesia or take other drastic action."
Yan Juanda Saputra, a lawyer from a defence team representing all the suspects, told Reuters that Silaen and Soares, along with the other 16, were not guilty of any of the charges.
US military ties on the line
Security analysts said the trials would need to be credible – and dish out stiff terms to a few senior officers – to help restore full military ties with the United States, slashed in the aftermath of the East Timor carnage.
Some Indonesian officials say that rupture has hindered Jakarta from fully taking part in Washington's war on terror. The United States has linked a return to full military cooperation to an accounting of what happened in the former Portuguese colony.
The United Nations estimates more than 1,000 people were killed during mayhem when pro-Jakarta militias with backing from Indonesia's military rampaged after the 1999 independence vote.
East Timor has been under UN administration since late 1999 and will declare formal independence on May 20.
"I think it depends on the credibility of the process and what happens. They will be carefully scrutinized and it's a bit of an acid test," said one senior foreign security analyst. "I don't think the US government is looking for a witch-hunt but I think if they at least symbolically put a few senior people in jail ... it would probably go a long way to getting Congress to lift restrictions on military engagement."
Court officials said there was no immediate plan to call witnesses living in East Timor, raising questions about whether judges would get a complete picture of what happened.
The trials will also be the first cases using Indonesia's new law on Human Rights Courts, issued in 2000, which for the first time makes top military officers liable to civilian prosecution for gross human rights violations, including genocide.
Political analysts said the trials were unlikely to drive a wedge between Megawati and the military, partly as generals had more to gain by not disrupting the process. The military chief at the time, Wiranto, and some other top officers are not on trial. The analysts also said Megawati, who hates confrontation or controversy, would likely keep her distance from the trials because of the emotions they might generate.
Question mark over military accountability
That raises doubts over how serious Megawati is about military accountability in Indonesia, one of the major issues that has dogged the world's fourth most populous nation since former President Suharto stepped down in 1998.
The military often acted with impunity during Suharto's 32-year iron rule and has largely rebuffed calls for extensive inquiries into human rights abuses committed by troops.
Megawati has said gross rights violations by soldiers off the battlefield must be dealt with, but made little effort to drive any accounting of an institution she sees eye-to-eye with on issues such as fighting separatists in Aceh and Papua provinces.
"The trials will be a test of the Megawati government's willingness to hold military officers accountable for human rights violations and, as such, will have ramifications for Papua and Aceh," Jones from Human Rights Watch said.
A whitewash could renew calls for the United Nations to convene an international tribunal along the lines of those for Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, but UN officials and diplomats have said they doubted such a move would take place.