Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – The current standoff between Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid and his police chief, and within the top ranks of the force, could lead to a dangerous showdown in Jakarta, say analysts.

Sacked police chief General Suroyo Bimantoro's refusal to step down, has split a demoralised police force already suffering from discipline problems.

This split – said to be among those who feel his sacking is illegal and those who finds his defiance an act of insubordination – could provoke clashes if Mr Abdurrahman tries to dissolve the Parliament. The public bickering at the top, if translated into divided loyalties among ground commanders in-charge of well-armed units could spell disaster if they interpreted their orders differently, analysts warned. Worse, confusion in police ranks could result in clashes with the more disciplined military.

Another concern is that if the President's supporters descend on the capital in force, the police and the military may be split over how to handle mass demonstrations, particularly if pro-Abdurrahman supporters become more violent.

Some factions of the police and military may favour a tough crackdown as they did recently in East Java, while the middle-ranking commanders may resist using force to break up violent demonstrations.

Mr Abdurrahman appears to have gained some support from middle-ranking police officers, who on Monday criticised Gen Bimantoro for refusing to obey the President and step down. These officers were later rewarded with promotions.

Analysts said this could set a dangerous precedent. As it is, the police are increasingly reluctant to follow the orders of their senior commanders, while the senior commanders themselves have refused to follow the President's order. "This is dangerous, it could make the police independent of government institutions," said political analyst Tomi Legowo.

The political standoff had also distracted the police from the task of solving serious crimes, such as Wednesday's bomb blast, said Mr Legowo. The police admitted that they had no clues as to the motive behind the bomb blast, which was the 14th major explosion in Jakarta over the past 18 months, the Jakarta Post reported yesterday. The effect of a divided police force was less likely to be felt outside Jakarta and Java, said analysts, as it was the military and not the police who held the key to security in outer islands.

Military analyst Bob Lowry said: "The police don't matter so much because they don't have the firepower at the moment." Mr Legowo, however, said the ability of police to respond quickly to sudden outbreaks of sectarian or ethnic violence in areas such as Maluku, Kalimantan and Sulawesi would be affected due to a lack of co-ordination between the top commanders and the lower ranks.