London – A respected think-tank says Indonesian Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri will replace President Abdurrahman Wahid by legal means this year but will be little more successful in stabilising the sprawling country.
In its annual Strategic Survey, published on Wednesday, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Megawati had aligned herself with the military establishment in her declared bid to replace Jakarta's first democratically elected president, who faces parliamentary censure over financial scandal.
"The authority vacuum in Indonesia in the face of its continuing troubles has deprived ASEAN of a locus of leadership and has diminished its international standing," the IISS said.
It described the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as being in a state of institutional torpor and political debility, enfeebled by its inclusion of non-democratic countries such as Myanmar and by its adherence to a cardinal rule of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states.
Parliamentary chiefs are debating a possible impeachment of Wahid, a near-blind Muslim cleric who has struggled for 19 months to hold the nation of 200 million together amid an economic crisis that led to the overthrow of veteran dictator Suharto in 1998. "The burning national question for the near term is not whether Wahid will go, but when and how," the IISS said.
It said he might step down through ill health or be overthrown by a popular revolt as Philippines President Joseph Estrada was. But the most likely scenario was that parliament would impeach him during the summer and Megawati would take over.
"A secularist like Wahid, she would face many of the same political and religious pressures, and would probably be even more reluctant to restructure the military," the IISS said.
"It is also hard to discern palpable differences between Megawati and Wahid on economic policy, though some of her advisers are resolute reformers. And she is likely to be less inclined to negotiate with separatists in Aceh, Irian Jaya and elsewhere." The London-based institute said Megawati might be more effective in running the bureaucracy and more responsive to parliament, "but it is difficult to see how her promotion to the presidency would translate into quick improvements in Indonesia's stability".
The report highlighted the rise of piracy in the Malacca Straits which it said was a by-product of the weakening of the Indonesian state through economic crisis, ethnic and religious strife.
It accused political opponents linked to the former Suharto regime of flouting presidential authority and deliberately fomenting sectarian violence.
The IISS said the military hierarchy had shown increasing reluctance to accept the elected president's authority, appointing some senior armed forces commanders without his sanction.
The survey said election losses suffered by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammed had demonstrated the shaky underpinnings of what it called his long-entrenched, autocratic government and a weakening ability to contain ethnic strife.
"Along with the other difficulties, an upsurge in Islamic militancy in Indonesia, the Philippines and, to an extent, Malaysia, has reinforced the appearance of instability in these countries," it concluded.