Jakarta – With two weeks to go before legislators meet to censure President Abdurrahman Wahid yet again over two graft scandals, leaders of his power base, the Nahdlatul Ulama Islamic movement (NU), are taking away his strongest trumpcard – NU zealots will not be allowed to declare war on his political opponents.

Their dilemma – do they try to save his presidency at all costs, even to NU's detriment, or do they help the opposition push him out and safeguard NU's future interests? Advertisement. NU leaders meeting in Cilegon, West Java, are today expected to issue a strong public warning against the launch of a "jihad" to defend the President, who was their former chairman.

They are also telling NU members to stay away from Jakarta if their intent is to create anarchy, putting paid to plans by the East Java branch to bring thousands into the capital's main stadium for a "prayer session" on April 29, and incidentally, intimidate the legislators meeting a block away.

Leading the warning calls is President Abdurrahman's own brother Solahuddin Wahid, an NU deputy chairman who told reporters that "conducting a jihad to defend Gus Dur would only impact negatively on the NU".

Sources say he is so worried about the possibility of a violent backlash from some NU members that he has been rallying other NU leaders to call on his brother to resign before the end of the month, when Parliament is expected to issue a second censure memorandum against him.

Mr Solahuddin, a source told The Sunday Times, has even sent an emissary to seek a concession from Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri, should his brother resign voluntarily: If she agrees to name an NU leader as her vice-president when she moves up, he will get 20 prominent NU kiayis (religious leaders) to call on Mr Abdurrahman to relinquish the presidency.

The only way the kiayis can convince the President that resigning is the best way to save both his own image and NU's political future, Mr Solahuddin reckons, is to assure him that an NU man will still play a significant role in national decision-making.

But, said the source, Ms Megawati declined to respond when told of the offer last week. No specific NU name was pitched to her as the new No. 2, but other sources say Mr Solahuddin has cited Mr Hamzah Haz, chairman of the Islamic-oriented United Development Front (PPP), and a senior NU leader, as the best choice.

Explaining her silence, one of Ms Megawati's advisers said: "Of course, she would like Gus Dur to resign – that's the cheapest way for her to take the job. But she doesn't even know how he will respond with a second memorandum. He might even decide he will not go even if the MPR rejects his accountability statement in June or August!"

Although various party leaders, including Parliament Speaker and Golkar chief Akbar Tanjung, have so far indicated that they are intent on humiliating the President one more time with another censure memorandum, they are also keen to start a dialogue with him that will lead to either a new power-sharing deal, or his voluntary resignation, rather than go for an ugly impeachment process.

Indeed, aides to People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) Speaker Amien Rais, his most embittered critic, say that he hopes to use the dialogue to show the President and his followers that a consensus exists – that Gus Dur is the problem and must resign to save the nation.

Said the aide: "Amien Rais now says the dialogue is important because he needs the forum to build a momentum, to let the public know that Gus Dur is not serious about finding solutions to the problems of the nation."

Fighting hard for his political life, the Indonesian leader, too, knows that he needs to build a momentum in his favour. Analysts say a Cabinet reshuffle could be announced as early as this week, bringing yet new permutations into the current political imbroglio.