Vaudine England, Jakarta – President Abdurrahman Wahid's reply to a censure motion today could trigger a last-ditch round of corrupt deal-making to try to ensure his political survival, according to analysts.
More than 1,000 Wahid supporters demonstrated in Jakarta yesterday and police were on high alert in anticipation of unrest ahead of the parliamentary session.
Parliament reprimanded Mr Wahid on February 1 for acting improperly over two financial scandals – opening the way for the leader's possible impeachment. Mr Wahid has already said he has done nothing wrong and is expected to restate his innocence to parliament.
"We mustn't close a window to the fact that Wahid may survive, but he will have to give some concessions," said veteran political analyst Harold Crouch, head of the Indonesian office of the International Crisis Group.
Parliamentarians have given themselves a month to consider Mr Wahid's reply and will use the time for serious bargaining, said Mr Crouch.
Political lecturer and member of Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, Cornelis Lay, said it could open the way for a free-for-all of corrupt deal-making. "It won't be only money but other deals and, of course, the mobilisation of people on the streets," he said.
Fears are rising of a dangerous confrontation on the streets between Wahid supporters and opponents in what could be a bloody conclusion to the battle to unseat him.
"Mobilisation of the masses can be seen as part of the political bargaining. We can expect the climate in Jakarta to get very intense, which could easily create wider conflict, simply because this is the last resort for both sides. This marks the start of the last battle," said Mr Lay.
By offering a reply today, Mr Wahid can hope to use the next month of parliamentary recess before the censure deadline to win over support by any means, analysts agreed.
One sign of the kind of political deals that may ensue is the removal of allegations against House of Representatives chairman Akbar Tandjung in a separate corruption case. He will instead appear as a witness. "I wouldn't be surprised to see Akbar moving closer to Wahid after that," a source said.
If Mr Wahid's reply fails to satisfy members of parliament then they will issue a second memorandum of censure. This would require a special session of the Peoples' Consultative Assembly (MPR), which would almost certainly vote President Wahid from office.
An indication of this came in comments by the sacked former justice minister and chairman of the Crescent Star Party, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, who said the MPR could hold a special session at any time. His party had yet to see any improvement in the Government's performance, he added.
The scandals for which Mr Wahid was reprimanded involve an alleged donation of US$2 million by the Sultan of Brunei, and the embezzlement of US$3.5 million from the state food agency Bulog by a presidential aide.