Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – As embattled President Abdurrahman Wahid fights off moves to impeach him, analysts fear this week's unrest throughout Java could easily spin out of control as Mr Abdurrahman's allies and opponents use mass movements to oppose each other.

The scores of burnt buildings and injured people, along with the thousands of outraged East Javanese threatening to wage a holy war show that the President's supporters will not easily allow the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) to impeach him.

Pro-Abdurrahman Nadhlatul Ulama (NU) supporters have upped the stakes, having proved that they could bring East Java to it's knees. NU is the 40 million-strong Muslim group that Mr Abdurrahman used to chair. The President's opponents appear equally willing to use mass demonstrations to strike back, as the thousand-strong student demonstrations in both Surabaya and Jakarta yesterday showed.

Further clashes are unlikely to occur in East Java, where demonstrations were relatively controlled, said analysts. However, they could break out in other parts of the country where rival Muslim groups, backed by MPR Speaker Amien Rais, could seek revenge for the damage done in Surabaya.

Said political analyst Goh Sam Qan: "The real danger is in places like Yogyakarta, or Jakarta where fundamental Muslim groups, linked to Amien Rais, are stronger. If they clash with NU it could be explosive."

The usually silent Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri yesterday condemned the violence. "I do not accept the continuation of these demonstrations [which] should not happen in a modern democratic state,"she said.

By waiting until yesterday to restrain the demonstrators, Mr Abdurrahman is showing that if Jakarta's elite want to play dirty – trying to impeach him over corruption charges when they have no proof – then he too can play dirty by moving slowly to calm his emotional supporters.

"The political parties are using the lower classes as their political tools," said Mr Goh, adding that it was easy for the parties to exploit a historical rivalry between the President's rural Muslim followers, and Golkar's and Amien Rais's predominantly urban Muslim followers from Muhammadiyah.

Local leaders from the President's PKB admitted as much when they suggested demonstrators would calm down if Mr Abdurrahman's opponents stopped pushing for his impeachment.

The politicians in Jakarta are also trying to use mass demonstrations to their advantage, exploiting the impression that the country is out of control to demand faster impeachment proceedings.

However, political analysts from East Java say that the pro-Abdurrahman violence is genuine, and could be easily re-ignited with more dire results.

Political scientist Dede Oetomo said: "I think it was thugs who burnt down the offices this time. If the violence was really spontaneous, then it would have been worse and people would have been killed."

The President and his NU supporters in East Java are to be feared, said Mr Dede Oetomo, because a large percentage of them are the fierce Madurese, whose culture includes fighting and even dying.

He added: "They're expressing pure religious loyalty to their leader [the President]. Every Madurese extended family has someone who has killed or been executed. Killing is justified in their culture."

Looking for answers that will kill

Addressing some 2,000 fanatical followers in East Java yesterday, President Abdurrahman Wahid slammed his critics and gently admonished his cheering supporters for attacking and burning the offices of the Golkar party in East Java. Here are some of his remarks:

"If you go on burning everything, how can we have elections? I'm happy you are ready to die bravely, but I prefer that you live bravely." The status [of the parliamentary committee which reported on the scandals] is not legitimate. Its work is tardy and its decision unacceptable.

"I am now preparing the best answer, an answer that will kill. Pasuruan is full of angry people. If you feel that you are not appreciated by Golkar, as I also feel unappreciated, let them be, let us be the ones upholding the laws. We'll see, that in the next election Golkar will lose."

"You can be hot in your heart, but you must stay cool in your head. Those who want to topple me will be toppled themselves."