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Suharto forces may yet stage comeback

Source
South China Morning Post - February 3, 2001

Vaudine England, Jakarta – Exuberant party politics is assumed to be a feature of post-Suharto Indonesia, making Parliament's censure of President Abdurrahman Wahid a heartening display of democracy in action. But a closer look at Mr Wahid's opponents suggests there are few new ideas in politics.

As Parliament tries to use corruption allegations to depose Mr Wahid, observers are pondering the adage that people in glass houses should not throw stones.

"We can't deny that there's an issue of corruption here, regarding Wahid's current plight," prominent lawyer Todung Mulya Lubis said. "But it's not the whole issue. It is unfair to isolate or to single out the Bulog or Brunei cases [in which Mr Wahid is implicated]. There is lots of corruption everywhere."

One such case was that involving Bank Bali, which involved far larger amounts of state funds finding their way into an account then used to support the Golkar party's campaigns and former president Bacharuddin Habibie in particular. Desultory legal efforts have ended in prime suspects being set free by Jakarta's corrupt courts.

It is only one of a long list of corruption allegations that could be laid at the doors of Mr Wahid's opponents. Instead, his Government has laid itself open to attack on corruption and dragged its feet on bringing massively indebted conglomerates to account.

The Government's failure to tackle economic reform transparently led this week to another delay in payments from the International Monetary Fund.

"If Wahid had tackled the Bank Bali case, he could have dismantled the whole structure of Golkar," Mr Lubis said. "Now he's left it too late. What is at stake here is the re-emergence of the New Order, of the status quo forces."

Mr Wahid's future is in the hands of Parliament, which is an amalgam of pro and anti-Wahid forces. Many allies of the Suharto regime can be found in Parliament, most obviously in the second-largest block formed by Suharto's former election-winning machine, Golkar. This remains the most cohesive party and is led by old hand Akbar Tandjung, who is also Speaker of the House of Representatives.

A Western diplomat said that Golkar was poised to be the victor in the battle with Mr Wahid. "They are the only party with a real organisation and some skilled people," he said. "They need only wait while this so-called democracy is increasingly discredited and be ready to step in. If they're really smart, they'll even make it look like the people's choice."

The largest block in Parliament, Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, freely admits its quality of representation is well below its quantity. Although Ms Megawati does not want to be seen as grabbing for power, her party men are pushing for parliamentary punishment of Mr Wahid. Some of them also have ties to Golkar and the armed forces.

Next is the United Development Party which, like both Golkar and Ms Megawati's party, was an approved party under Suharto.

Mr Wahid is the patron of the far younger National Awakening Party, which won about 11 per cent of the vote in June 1999.

Struggling with about eight per cent is the National Mandate Party, led by Amien Rais. His apparent weakness is offset by his post as chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly. He is a firm enemy of Mr Wahid and wants to alter the assembly's practices to suit an impeachment agenda.

Amid the welter of smaller parties, two are of note. The Justice Party and the Star and Crescent Party are young but focused. Their relatively dynamic leadership makes them an important part of a broad Islamic coalition called the Central Axis. This coalition helped elect Mr Wahid, but has long since deserted him.

Separately, many pro-democracy fellow travellers from Mr Wahid's pre-presidential days are also seeking to distance themselves from him.

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