Vaudine England, Jakarta – President Abdurrahman Wahid's future looked bleak last night after Parliament's decision to censure him over corruption allegations, a vote that leaves him with few options.
Even if Parliament allows him up to four months to respond to its concerns, Mr Wahid's rule has been deeply damaged. "I can't see how he can really get himself out of this now unless he tries extraordinary means, which probably would not work anyway," a senior Western diplomat said.
Sources in the presidential palace and elsewhere confirmed that people closest to the near-blind Muslim cleric had discussed what to do next. One group is looking for a graceful exit – to persuade Mr Wahid to resign with his dignity intact.
But a political analyst said: "None of us see him as the kind of guy who will give up like that. And if anybody's looking at the Philippine model now, they will see that even [ousted president Joseph] Estrada refused to use that word 'resign'."
Consideration has also been given to the declaration of a state of civil emergency or of full-fledged martial law. The problem for Mr Wahid is that the armed forces chiefs are understood to have said they see no justification for such a declaration. With police displaying new-found skills in negotiation and restraint, chaos on the streets has been averted so far.
High-level representatives from foreign embassies have informed the palace that any suspension of the constitution, be it a "freezing" of Parliament or a state of emergency, would be disastrous for his foreign support.
"Wahid can declare whatever he likes in terms of emergencies, but he risks looking very silly," the senior Western diplomat said.
Parliament's memorandum of censure gives Mr Wahid three months to respond, and a month after that before a final special session of the full Parliament could vote him from office. Analyst Marcus Mietzner said: "From the moment the memorandum is sent to him, Wahid is legally required to respond. Considering his stand so far, it's very unlikely he will. At this moment, he seems set on a course of confrontation." A palace source said: "Wahid is feeling belligerent. He's determined to fight, even though he's been told that the presence of his supporters on the street is very dangerous. He just says he has more people on his side." Parliament could move quickly to issue its memorandum. It need be only a page long. The string of speeches from faction heads in Parliament yesterday outlined in detail Mr Wahid's supposed transgressions, including his alleged violation of a Peoples' Consultative Assembly (MPR) decree calling for clean government.
"The memorandum is tantamount to the beginning of an impeachment process. It gives Wahid only a breathing space," the diplomat said. "People around him are rehearsing the various options, such as somehow making him a figurehead and giving Vice-President Megawati [Sukarnoputri] more powers. But he's supposed to have tried that already since the last MPR session in August."
That the corruption report reaches only general conclusions based on circumstantial evidence is not holding parliamentarians back. Those propelling moves towards deposing Mr Wahid laugh off concerns about due process and rule of law, thus in effect admitting they are making up the process as they go along. They may decide that a majority vote in the House is enough for anything – such as declaring the President "temporarily suspended", and thereby stripping him of immunity from prosecution.
Seemingly caught in the middle of all of this is Ms Megawati. She was in tears at Wednesday night's meeting of her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, the largest bloc in Parliament and the first to call for a memorandum against her "brother" Mr Wahid. While the party moved to open the way for her ascension to the presidency, Ms Megawati stayed on the fence, choosing to chair a cabinet meeting yesterday instead of going to Parliament.