Timothy Mapes, Jakarta – Indonesia's political crisis deepened as Parliament demanded that President Abdurrahman Wahid respond to allegations that he was involved in two multimillion-dollar corruption scandals.
The party of Mr. Wahid's popular vice president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, supported the move, which could be a first step toward removing Mr. Wahid from office. Political analysts said the decision by Ms. Megawati's party – which is the largest in Parliament – indicated that support for Mr. Wahid's 15-month administration appears to be rapidly evaporating.
But under Indonesia's convoluted legal procedures, it could take months to formally impeach Mr. Wahid over the scandals, if it happens at all. The result is that Southeast Asia's largest nation appears headed for an extended period of political uncertainty that increases the potential for violence and that will further hamper efforts to grapple with the country's severe economic problems.
"We're going through a period where we really have no guidance," said Manggi Habir, president director of Pefindo, a local credit-rating agency. This will increase already serious concerns among businesspeople here about the security situation and the effectiveness of the government, he added.
Some 15,000 people demonstrated against Mr. Wahid's administration outside Parliament on Thursday, far outnumbering about a thousand of Mr. Wahid's supporters. Inside the building, lawmakers voted 393 to 4 to endorse a report by a parliamentary committee that accuses Mr. Wahid of being involved in the two scandals. Fifty members of Mr. Wahid's party walked out before the vote was cast.
Feared violence didn't materialize, as a heavy police presence at Parliament kept the opposing camps apart. But Justice Minister Yusril Ihza Mahendra warned that political tensions could trigger a repeat of the bloody social unrest that toppled former President Suharto in 1998. "The potential for that is there, although we hope it doesn't happen," he said. Earlier this week, Indonesian Defense Minister Mohammad Mahfud warned that the country's powerful military could intervene to help force Mr. Wahid from office if the situation further deteriorates.
The parliamentary report accuses Mr. Wahid of participating in the alleged embezzlement of 35 billion rupiah ($3.7 billion) from a state-run pension fund by his personal masseur and former business partner. It also alleges that he made misleading statements about the whereabouts of a $2 million donation he accepted from the Sultan of Brunei.
Mr. Wahid has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing in the two affairs. He also has accused the committee of being unconstitutional and part of a conspiracy by his opponents to oust him.
Parliament now plans to send a letter to Mr. Wahid warning him that his actions appear to have violated the law. Mr. Wahid will then have three months to respond to Parliament's satisfaction. If he fails to do so, Parliament can issue a second warning letter, to which Mr. Wahid would have another month to respond. Then, if Parliament still isn't satisfied, it can summon the People's Consultative Assembly, a body that includes Parliament and other members appointed by special interest groups, which has the power to vote Mr. Wahid out of office and replace him with Ms. Megawati.
Parliament also decided Thursday to hand the cases over to legal authorities for further investigation, but it didn't elaborate on how it expected this to take place.
Even if Mr. Wahid isn't removed from office – and some observers think he can still hang on – Parliament's actions have inflicted further damage on the president's already constrained ability to govern. That spells more bad news for efforts to get Indonesia's struggling economy back on track. For example, the International Monetary Fund's $5 billion lending program for the country remains stalled by a lack of progress in several key areas, most notably proposals for a new law on central bank independence. With legislators now focused on their political struggle with the president, it seems unlikely that consensus on a new law can be achieved anytime soon.
Pefindo's Mr. Manggi also voiced concerns that the political mess would distract from efforts to clean up the masses of bad debt in the country's banking system, so that banks can resume lending to companies. And he warned that Indonesia could expect little letup in the rise in violent lawlessness that has become a major problem for businesses here. "For a businessman, if my truck is being hijacked in the middle of the highway, or my factory is being ransacked, then I have a big problem," he said.
[Staff reporter Puspa Madani and special correspondent Rin Hindryati contributed to this article.]