Jakarta – The generals are back. With civilian leaders mired in political infighting and unable to tackle Indonesia's mounting crises, the army brass – on the defensive since the ouster of the dictatorship it backed for 32 years – is reasserting its dominance in the country's politics.
Some even speculate that army officers were behind a string of deadly bombings across the country on Christmas Eve, which President Abdurrahman Wahid labeled an attempt to destabilize the government by inciting Muslim-Christian clashes.
With support from lawmakers, army commanders have blocked Wahid – the country's first elected president in 45 years – from implementing democratic reforms, including asserting civilian supremacy over the armed forces.
"It turns out that Wahid's reforms were an illusion," said Julia Suryakusuma, an Indonesian political analyst. "All they managed to do was to melt the tip of the iceberg, but the rest of it has remained unaffected." During his decades in power, ex-President Suharto – himself a five-star army general – used the army to crush any opposition. In return, it got a free hand to build a commercial empire that reaches into every sector of the economy.
But when Suharto fell amid pro-democracy protests, the army was on the defensive because of revelations of its widespread human rights abuses and its role in the destruction of East Timor after the province's people voted for independence in a UN referendum.
Early in his administration, Wahid seized on the army's troubles and appointed the first civilian defense minister in decades. He angered traditionalists by reducing army dominance over other branches of the military and promoting navy and air force officers to top posts previously reserved for army generals.
He also sacked the powerful security minister, Gen. Wiranto, Suharto's old military chief, on suspicion of involvement in East Timor's destruction, and had the national police removed from the army chain of command. But 14 months into his term, Wahid is struggling to maintain his grip on power.
On Wedneday police fired warning shots and tear gas at some 3,000 people demonstrating outside parliament to demand his ouster, and tensions have arisen between Wahid and Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri.
He has also failed to revive Indonesia's moribund economy or to stem bloody separatist uprisings, and his government is bogged down in political scandals. Critics accuse the president – who is 60 and half-blind – of indecisiveness and erratic behavior.
Amid such uncertainty the generals have begun to claw their way back into the forefront of politics through a loose alliance of anti-reform groups.
According to foreign diplomats – who spoke on condition of anonymity – these include sections of Megawati's political party, Suharto's former ruling party, and some Muslim groups. Possibly illustrating the improving ties, Megawati has started wearing uniforms at military functions.
"Senior officers are tired and disappointed with [Wahid]," said Salim Said, a prominent political analyst close to the military. "They were expecting strong leadership, but now, with all the problems, they have had enough and they would like another leader – a new patron for the armed forces." The army, which appears to be ignoring orders from the Wahid-appointed armed forces commander, navy Adm. Widodo Adi Sutjipto, has been demanding that his position revert to the army in the future.
The army traditionally regarded itself as the guardian of Indonesia's unity. It easily defeated efforts last August to remove it from Indonesia's 450-member legislature, where it retains 38 seats.
Perhaps most telling among the evidence of the army's resurgent power is that the prosecution of generals accused of human rights violations – including Wiranto – has all but ground to a halt.
Speculation in the media pointed to some military elements as responsible for the Christmas bombings, noting only the military had the logistics to carry off attacks in nine cities on one day. Eighteen people were killed in the blasts.
Despite their increasing assertiveness, however, army hard-liners have not consolidated their hold on the military.
Analysts say many generals remain undecided and air force and navy commanders are increasingly resisting the old guard. According to a senior military intelligence officer who declined to be identified, the army command is split into three factions. Two want to keep the army meddling in politics to a greater or lesser extent, and a third – the smallest faction – is made up of true reformers.
Salim confirmed that the power struggle pitted "status quo" forces against a smaller reformist faction, with the rest of the officer corps waiting to see who would prevail. "As usual," he said, "the majority are people in the middle, the opportunists."