Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – While President Abdurrahman Wahid gave his backing for another ceasefire between Acehnese rebels and the government, analysts said the bloodshed over the past few days indicated that neither side was prepared to take the truce seriously.
Last week, the exiled leadership of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the Indonesian government agreed to a one-month extension of the ceasefire during talks in Geneva. The truce was originally set to end on January 15.
"His response is to fully support the content and the follow-up of the Geneva meeting," said presidential spokesman Wimar Witoelar, referring to President Abdurrahman's attitude towards the provisional agreement.
The Defence Minister yesterday showed an increasing willingness to use negotiation rather than military might to solve the conflict, saying a military operation was unnecessary.
But few people expect the ceasefire extension to work as the police, armed forces and the GAM rebels have been involved in attacks over the past few days in which at least 30 civilians and troops have been killed.
One analyst said there would be little reduction in violence over the coming weeks as the military and police do not believe there is need for talks with the rebel forces and are gearing up for an attack.
"The military and police believe they can beat the uprising militarily and that they don't need to sit down at the table with GAM," he said.
In the absence of any fixed agreement about how the moratorium will be implemented, or any fines for violating it, both the government and the GAM rebels are interpreting it according to their own agenda, while ordinary Acehnese fear a showdown is imminent
GAM spokesman Amni bin Ahmad, for instance, said that both GAM and Indonesian security forces should be restricted to their barracks with the truce. However, the police were out in full force yesterday, launching an operation to collect all weapons owned by civilians.
With the weapons search, large sections of Aceh virtually closed down as ordinary Acehnese feared the search was just a pretext for hunting down rebels, said Faisal Ridha of the Information Centre for a Referendum.
"Everybody here knows police try and use the law as reason to search suspicious houses, but in fact they don't even have permits for such searches," he said.
He said a raid against the rebels a few days ago, in which at least 1,000 troops participated, resulted in the burning of dozens of houses, with 12 civilians being killed.
A GAM member monitoring the truce, Nasiruddin bin Achmad, accused the armed forces of launching an offensive near a GAM base on Sunday, killing at least one civilian. They also accused the military of killing 28 people over a three-day period last week in north Aceh. But Mr Nasiruddin admitted that GAM "went on the defensive" and attacked a convoy of troops.
In its defence, the armed forces and the police alleged that GAM has repeatedly violated the ceasefire, prior to the latest moratorium.
As one foreign diplomat noted, "the lack of progress in the humanitarian pause over the last six months indicates the lack of willingness on both sides to implement a moratorium on violence."
[On January 16, Agence France Presse quoted presidential spokesperson Wimar Witoelar as saying "His [Wahid's] response [on the provisional agreement] is to fully support the content and the follow up of the Geneva meeting ... He [Wahid] agreed on a condition where negotiations could take place" - James Balowski.]