Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – Even though the police are taking extra precaution to secure the capital against mass demonstrations rumoured to begin tomorrow, commentators say the real political onslaught might be delayed for several weeks.

Demonstrators have vowed to converge in the capital tomorrow, when Parliament begins the New Year with a committee presenting its findings on "Buloggate" and "Bruneigate" – two corruption scandals involving President Abdurrahman Wahid.

But political observers said that while opposition to Mr Abdurrahman is real, the expected mass demonstrations are only empty threats. "We take the position that usually when something is predicted so extensively in the press here, it will not happen," said one diplomat.

But in preparation of the expected showdown between thousands of pro- and anti-Abdurrahman demonstrators who have reportedly arrived in the capital, the police have deployed 40,000 security personnel in Jakarta to counter possible riots.

President Abdurrahman has repeatedly called on the paramilitaries or Banser from Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) – the Muslim organisation he used to lead – not to assemble in the capital. "To Banser and PDI-P's task force, I am telling you there is no need to come to Jakarta because everything is under control," he said.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Alwi Shihab and Jakarta Police chief Inspector-General Mulyono Sulaiman have also reassured the foreign embassies here that the capital was secure, despite admissions by Banser leaders in East Java that 10,000 of their members had already arrived in Jakarta. Meanwhile, the police estimated that at least 3,000 demonstrators are ready for a show of force.

NU deputy secretary-general Masduki Baidlawi's statements on Friday that there were individuals impersonating NU civilian guards in two cities outside Jakarta has also added to the ominous warnings made by Cabinet members that certain forces were trying to engineer riots in an attempt to topple the government.

It is unlikely that the Buloggate and Bruneigate investigation committees will be able to present findings or gain agreement on Parliament's reaction to the scandals, as the commission either lacks evidence of the President's involvement or has been persuaded not to pursue the case thoroughly.