Louise Williams – Four years ago, the then Islamic leader Abdurrahman Wahid publicly begged for forgiveness on behalf of Muslim mobs who had burned every church to the ground in the east Javanese town of Situbondo. He then defiantly opened the doors of his Jakarta home to the nation's Christian leaders.
As Christians, decked out in colourful Sunday frocks and stuffy collars and ties despite the tropical heat, gathered nervously to pray in the blackened shells of Situbondo's churches, Wahid said Indonesia must not bow to the forces of Islamic extremism.
Wahid was then the leader of Indonesia's largest Islamic organisation, the 40 million-strong Nahdlatul UIama, and the one man who could defuse religious tensions. His message was simple, tolerance.
So precarious is the balance between Indonesia's majority Muslims and its religious and ethnic minorities that anything short of absolute religious tolerance could unleash a devastating wave of bloodshed.
It was Wahid who stood between those who would mobilise Indonesia's poor Muslims for their own political gain and the country's minorities the Constitution pledged to protect. He made his stand despite death threats to himself and his wife and four daughters.
Now, Wahid is Indonesia's President. On Christmas Eve at least 14 people died and more than 70 were injured in a series of church bombings across Java and Sumatra. The attacks go right to heart of all Wahid stands for, and it is reasonable to ask how much longer his "buffer" role can hold. It is also reasonable to ask how long Indonesia's fragile, young democracy can survive.
Already, his fears of four years ago are being played out. Thousands have died, hundreds of thousands have been made refugees in their own land, and thousands more have been maimed in religious riots since the burning of Situbondo's churches.
On the island of Borneo, Dayak tribes have revived "head-hunting" to kill Muslim settlers. In the Malukus, Muslim vigilante mobs have slaughtered Christians who refused to convert. On the island of Lombok, Muslim mobs have attacked churches and nightclubs, forcing the evacuation of thousands of foreign tourists. And on the streets of Jakarta, Muslim mobs have lynched Christians in full view of passing crowds.
The most recent attacks, Wahid announced on television, were intended to destabilise his Government. "They may well succeed," he conceded, grimly.
Behind the attacks lie the "dark forces" of Indonesian politics, a term widely used to refer to faceless political enemies who learned to play the black power game behind the authoritarian wall of Soeharto's rule.
Few Indonesians believe much of the violence is spontaneous. Uprisings and riots are led by politicians, or are blatantly orchestrated by them, with fleets of hired buses, lunchpacks and daily "allowances" for mobs. Grinding poverty and unemploy-ment makes recruits easy to find. As the Javanese say, the grass is dry – so it will burn hot.
When Soeharto was forced from power amid popular demonstrations in 1998, many sections of the political elite stood to lose. Perhaps the biggest losers were the armed forces which had enjoyed a dual security and political role under Soeharto, and were permitted to use their power to operate profitable businesses. Another group of losers were the rich Soeharto cronies who ran much of the economy and built fortunes.
Wahid has pledged to rein in the armed forces, to hold soldiers and officers accountable for years of human rights abuses and to try Soeharto, his children and his associates for corruption. On all fronts, Wahid is struggling and the power of his civilian, democratic government is being called into question.
The forces are continuing to kill in the violence-wracked provinces of Irian Jaya and Aceh, Wahid's own navy failed to stop Muslim "jihad warriors" from boarding boats to the Malukus to fight Christians, no convictions have been achieved over the carnage in East Timor, and police have failed to arrest Soeharto's playboy son, Tommy, after a court sentenced him to jail.
Less moderate Islamic leaders within Wahid's own Government believe Indonesia's majority Muslims must take more prominent positions in society.
The problem for Wahid and his mantra of tolerance lies in the historical structure of Indonesian society. During Dutch colonial rule the mainly Christian ethnic Chinese community was permitted to trade and grew relatively prosperous, while the ethnic Malay Muslim majority was enslaved to the plantations, landless and poor. Fifty years of independence and internal migration has blurred the social cleavages, but in too many areas race, religions and wealth form an explosive structural fault line of power. Only 4 per cent of Indonesians are ethnic Chinese, but they control an estimated 70 per cent of business. Christians are also over-represented in the professions and government.
It is no surprise that Chinese Christians are targeted in mob violence. But in scores of towns when pent-up resentments have been vented communities find themselves without the very Christian shopkeepers, doctors, pharmacists and even loan sharks who hold the community together.
The most urgent question now is what kind of Indonesia would emerge if Wahid were to be forced out. An obvious option is a return to authoritarianism. In the meantime, the apparent strategy of burning Wahid out of the presidential palace can mean only more damage to the social fabric and fading hopes for a stable, democratic nation to Australia's north.
[Louise Williams is a former Herald correspondent in Indonesia.]