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Indonesian shares likely to remain stagnant

Source
Agence France Presse - December 1, 2000

Jakarta – Indonesian share prices, which dropped 1.54 percent over the week, were likely to remain static in the coming week amid ongoing political tension and a holiday-shortened trading month, analysts said Friday.

"Basically the market is still static and it will stay that way until the end of the trading year – which effectively is only two more weeks from now," Vickers Ballas technical analyst Ahmad Amir told AFP. But he said he saw "a small potential for the market to see a minor rise" in the next two weeks if players used the remaining time for "year-end window-dressing."

The Jakarta Stock Exchange composite index lost 6.689 points over the week to close at 427.522 on Friday. Daily turnover averaged 266.9 million shares at an average value of 23.88 million dollars, compared with the previous week's average of 444.06 million shares worth 41.97 million dollars.

The rupiah closed the week at around 9,520-9,530 to the dollar, down marginally from its previous week's rate of 9,450-9,460. The rupiah "will continue to weaken in the coming weeks" Amir said, citing that the completion of restructurng of several big companies would "require them to buy a lot of US dollars to pay their creditors."

An ongoing feud between President Abdurrahman Wahid and several members of the House of Representatives (DPR) over the president's alleged involvement in two financial scandals gave "no positive image for the market," Amir said.

"Unless Wahid delivers positive political and economic news, the market is unlikely to see any significant increase," he added. The index was likely to consolidate at around the 420 to 440 level, Amir added.

But BNI Securities head of research Adrian Rusmana said technically there was more room on the upside than downside in the coming week. "If you watch closely, market volume tends to be thin in any market fall while in contrast when the index rises volume becomes much bigger," he said.

Rusmana said he maintains his view that the index will slowly rise towards the year-end. "I am looking at around 439 [points] next week," he said. "For one thing, I would say that Telkom is now lagging behind other big caps. So there is an opportunity for Telkom to rally any time into the year end and any increase in Telkom will have substantial impact on the overall index," he said.

Telkom gained 100 rupiah over the week to close at 2,475 while Indosat shed 440 to close at 8,800. Cigarette maker Sampoerna rose 1,050 to end the week at 14,500 while rival Gudang Garam gained 850 to close at 13,250.

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