Susan Sim, Jakarta – Mr Stanley Fischer, the world's chief economics tutor, may find out today if he has a student so compliant he wants to give him all credit for his decisions.

Will President Abdurrahman Wahid tell his angry legislative chiefs during their monthly "consultation" that he sacked two economics ministers from their parties on Monday, and might fire yet more, because the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the Cabinet team's disunity was causing the country to backslide on the reform track?

It will be a tribute Mr Fischer does not deserve, nor want. For, say IMF sources, he specifically asked the President not to indulge in his favourite game of ministerial musical chairs and roil the markets any further.

The IMF's acting managing director left a meeting with the President on Monday morning with what he thought was a presidential assurance that there would be no Cabinet reshuffle for now. So did Gus Dur's personal economics advisers, who pleaded that he not add to the air of uncertainty. Eight hours later, the axe fell on State Enterprises Minister Laksamana Sukardi and Trade Minister Jusuf Kalla.

Was Gus Dur cocking a snook at teacher, showing him who's boss? After all, his most important political challenger, People's Consultative Assembly Speaker Amien Rais, has got people thinking that such stringent foreign tutelage is unnecessary when Jakarta does not really need the fund's US$400 million so urgently now.

Machismo aside, by unceremoniously shoving aside one representative each from the two largest political parties in the land, has he changed the tenuous balance of power such that his unhappy allies have no choice but make good on their threatening noises to walk out of his Unity government?

The short answer is no, for the fractious dynamics of the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar do not favour the two sacked ministers.

Mr Laksamana might have been among Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri's most loyal advisers and probably the best-liked lobbyist with foreign governments while she was still in opposition.

But, his secularist wing of the party is being shut out, reduced to criticising her lack of leadership, while Ms Megawati's husband shores up her Islamic credentials with his own Masyumi background and advances to Dr Amien's Islamic Axis bloc. A month or so ago, the Vice-President might have wrangled with Gus Dur on his behalf, running interference in the quiet but firm manner she did for economic czar Kwik Kian Gie and, even ex-military chief Wiranto, buying them time for a more graceful exit.

But not this time. He did not consult me, she said sadly when she heard the news of his sacking on Monday night while enroute to the strife-torn Central Maluku islands.

The truth, of course, was that she could have been more pro- active, especially after the President confronted Mr Laksamana with a demand that he resign before he left on another whirlwind tour in early April.

Instead, she told the depressed Laksamana that, while she did not agree with Gus Dur's decision, he should not fight him. Perhaps, apart from the complex emotional battle between her husband and her strategists, her own survival instincts also told her that this was a battle she would not win.

For Mr Laksamana's Cabinet viability is part of a larger tussle over the President's long-term political survival, which includes firming up his own patronage network or risk mass defection in the regions.

Although he is well-loved as Islamic kyiai and national leader, the concept of electoral loyalty will remain an alien one among local elites unless he shows them how their vote is linked to their personal fortunes.

Over the last fortnight, after Gus Dur accused him privately of backsliding on the IMF targets for his department, and told him to resign, the former minister has been telling friends about the pressure being exerted on him to fill top posts in state enterprises with presidential loyalists.

He had already lost one skirmish earlier in the year when the government suddenly grew lukewarm about investigating private sector giant, Texmaco, after revelations of malfeasance by Mr Laksamana.

Aghast presidential advisers later told The Straits Times that Texmaco had allegedly put 150,000 NU members in East Java on its payroll and given NU kyiais incentive to lobby the President on its behalf.

The last straw was apparently over Mr Laksamana's failure to secure the term extension of a senior Telkom official, sources said.

When he was away in mid-February on a haj pilgrimage with Ms Megawati, Coordinating Economic Minister Kwik Kian Gie was advised by the former minister's deputy, Mr Rozy Munir, to ensure the Telkom official kept his job because the President wished it so. When he demurred, he was summoned by the President and given the same message.

Yet, at the Telkom shareholder's meeting on April 7, that official did not win a term extension. For Mr Laksamana's foes, it would be proof of his continual defiance of Gus Dur.

Commented a friend: "Laksamana just didn't play the game. He wouldn't entertain the NU requests and, when he should have stroked Rozy Munir since he was forced on his ministry by the President, he alienated him instead." Why Gus Dur even installed Mr Jusuf Kalla in the first place is puzzling.

Accusing the trade minister of being involved in the Golden Keys scandal of the mid-1980s, he began promising his post to Lt-Gen Luhut Panjaitan, the Habibie-appointed envoy to Singapore, almost immediately.

Mr Kalla's real utility, it appeared, was to embarrass his nominal sponsor, Golkar chief and Parliament Speaker Akbar Tandjung, who had given his personal undertaking that the Bugis businessman was a man of integrity despite the whiffs of corruption swirling around him, and fanned by Gus Dur himself.

Still, Mr Akbar stood by him, forbidding him to quit unless proven guilty in a court of law. But it is doubtful he will go to bat for Mr Kalla now he is finally out; he is from South Sulawesi, a province controlled by a party boss who wants to oust Mr Akbar as chief.

He has no need to strengthen his own opponents, especially since Mr Kalla has admitted privately he was involved in the Golden Keys scandal, and his only defence is that former president Suharto ordered him to.

Mr Abdurrahman, too, has shown time and time again that he has little regard for the Parliament Speaker, often ignoring him altogether. When Gus Dur decided to fire Mr Kalla late last month, it was not Mr Akbar's blessings he sought but, the ageing General Muhammad Jusuf's, a much revered former Defence Minister from South Sulawesi.

What Gus Dur did not do on Monday is perhaps more instructive; he left well alone the ministers endorsed by Islamic Axis leader Amien Rais.

The two hitherto Islamic leaders, well-known for their decade- long animosity towards each other, have been inching closer to putting real bite into their verbal sling-fest.

But the timing has never seemed right, although the scheming goes on. A ministerial source told The Straits Times that, in the last two months, Dr Amien and the five or six ministers from the Islamic Axis parties have met at least twice to discuss ways to oust the President constitutionally.

One option they considered was for the Islamic Axis parties to withdraw their support for Gus Dur on the grounds that he was not only not solving the economic problems, but also contributing to the malaise with his confusing statements. Influential in Cabinet appointments, if not in electoral clout, their sudden rejection of the President would "create a legitimacy crisis", they reckoned.

Dr Amien might have credibility problems with most of Jakarta's political elite, but no one can deny that he worked hard to develop solidarity among the Muslim parties and hand their votes over to Gus Dur, thereby denying Ms Megawati victory in October.

The main stumbling block in this scenario would be Ms Megawati herself. Would she throw the weight of her party masses behind the President? Would she side with a failing President against all the Islamic parties, thereby allowing them to tar her party as anti-Islamic, in cahoots with a President who is more interested in furthering the interests of non-Muslims at their expense?

That element of uncertainty stymied the group, the source said. Plus they realised it could mean a chance for the Indonesian Defence Force to step into the political arena, on Gus Dur's side.

The leading military generals made as much clear when they stomped on suggestions floated by Dr Amien's group to hold a special impeachment session of the People's Consultative Assembly.

Stalemate? Perhaps. Gus Dur and Amien's political futures seem quite inextricably linked for now. But, mercurial as he is, it would be foolish for any minister to sleep easy, especially after his promise yesterday to "slim his Cabinet".

Meanwhile, Indonesia's economic prospects are actually looking cheerful for a change, recent ministerial inertia notwithstanding. At least there are now two new ministers fully pumped and eager to prove their President's trust in their abilities.

As the ABN-AMRO's latest market report issued on Monday noted optimistically: "Recent developments, including the Paris Club rescheduling and the IMF's optimism over reform progress, will provide underlying support for Indonesia's balance of payments. S&P's downgrade of Indonesia's issuer rating from CCC+ to D was a technical one, and should be reversed in two to three months.

"Although political and social risk factors remain a wild card, for investors with higher risk appetite, we recommend entering long rupiah short dollar positions on a three-month basis."

Political pundits might want to continue betting long on Gus Dur's political wiles and survival instincts too. Just consider why he risked alienating the market to remove Mr Laksamana so his own man is now in control of the state enterprises.

If, as President, you are committed to not treating the conglomerates like your personal piggy bank, where then is an impoverished grassroots movement, like NU, that has always depended on your ability to collect handouts, to get funding from?

How too can a small party like the Nation Awakening Party (PKB) quickly collect a sizeable war chest for your re-election in 2004, especially if it is going to be the first direct presidential election?

The reality is, money still talks loudest for a people still years from appreciating the benefits and risks of ballot-box democracy.