Heather Paterson, Dili – East Timor may be heading for renewed political turmoil as its former independence movement – now relieved of the common enemy that once united it – begins to crumble, party leaders warn.
Having succeeded in evicting the Indonesian occupiers after 25 years of struggle, the coalition known as the Timorese National Council of Resistance, or CNRT, is now fracturing as its member parties vie for power in the new political landscape.
While some fear such a split could lead to a repeat of the bloody civil war that preceded the Indonesian invasion in 1975, others see the trend as a logical progression to East Timorese democracy.
"The grassroots are very nervous with the notion of the CNRT ending too soon and we go back to the instability of the seventies," said Jose Ramos-Horta, Nobel laureate and vice president of the CNRT.
In an effort to rid the tiny territory of Indonesian occupation, 21 disparate political parties united into the CNRT. Its aim: to kick out the Indonesians and establish an independent state. It largely achieved that goal last September, after East Timorese voters opted overwhelmingly to separate from Indonesia in a UN-sponsored plebiscite.
Though the CNRT is made up of numerous factions, two are dominant: the right-wing Timorese Democratic Union, or UDT; and the leftist Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor, or Fretilin. After East Timor's colonial masters, the Portuguese, withdrew in 1975, the two groups engaged in a civil war that Indonesia exploited to justify its invasion.
Ramos-Horta warned that the CNRT could disband at its national congress in August. Fretilin leader Francisco Xavier do Amaral predicted the same thing. Ramos-Horta said there was fear that the fragmenting of the CNRT along party lines would mean a renewal of the bloodshed.
Others seemed willing to take the risk. "If we are going to have a democratic nation, then we must have different political parties," said do Amaral, one of the CNRT leaders.
UDT head Joao Carrascalao said the CNRT's factions will go their own way as soon as the United Nations adopts a new law on political organizations. "When that law on political parties is ... approved, then the political parties will start their activities," he said.
It will be another two years until East Timor gains full independence. The United Nations has a mandate to prepare the territory for self-rule and its officials regularly consult with CNRT leaders on administrative matters. Outside the CNRT there is only one group that has refused to be included under the its umbrella. The nationalist Council for Popular Democracy for the Democratic Republic of East Timor is critical of the CNRT's links to former colonial power Portugal.
"CNRT is a puppet, a manipulated body, set up in Lisbon, imported from Lisbon and imposed by Lisbon," said Cristiano da Costa, the party's chairman. "We don't want to be re-colonized by the Portuguese."
In February, East Timor's political leaders chose Portuguese as the territory's official language, saying they are indebted to their former colonial masters.
The United Nations has not set a date for general elections. But it is generally believed that independence leader Jose Alexandre "Xanana" Gusmao, CNRT's charismatic leader, will become the country's first democratically elected president.
He says it's not a job he wants, but will accept it should it be thrust upon him. "We read about many other failures, many other countries, in which heroes of the struggle became the leadership of the new country," he said. "A new country needs more capability to lead, to govern and to guide."