Sangwon Suh and Dewi Loveard, Jakarta – Would the person who is really in charge of Indonesia please stand up? With rumors of a military coup swirling around in Jakarta, Muslim-Christian violence exploding in the outer regions and Islamists calling for a holy war, a casual observer might be forgiven for thinking that the situation in Indonesia is spinning out of control. Amid the tensions and the unrest, President Abdurrahman Wahid has been a picture of calm confidence, acting as if he is firmly in charge – and he may well be. But it is also apparent that he is locked in an intense political battle to secure his presidency.
Wahid has plenty of rivals who would shed few tears at his downfall. Foremost among them is Gen. Wiranto, formerly the armed-forces chief, now the coordinating minister for politics and security. The military, especially the army, has been upset at the gradual loss of influence under Wahid's presidency. Not improving the generals' mood is the government-sanctioned probe into the military's involvement in human-rights abuses in East Timor last year.
Another hostile group is the Islamists. Angry at the killings of fellow Muslims in the Malukus' religious violence, which has now spread to South Sulawesi and Lombok, the militants have been staging protests to call for the blood of Christians and denounce what they see as government inaction.
Even Amien Rais, chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly and leader of the "Center Axis" of Muslim parties, has openly expressed his dissatisfaction with the leadership of the man he helped to power.
Given the opposition to Wahid, how real is threat of a coup? Brig.-Gen. Nono Sampurno, a special adviser to Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, claims that there is indeed a top-level conspiracy in progress. According to insiders, the military is trying to stage a "creeping" coup: Wiranto's game plan, they say, is to create so much trouble around the country that the people lose faith in Wahid and support a motion of no-confidence against his government. Army elements are suspected of being behind the religious unrest in the Malukus; sources also say the military is cooperating with the Muslim parties to put further pressure on Wahid.
The wily tactician that he is, Wahid has not been sitting idle while his enemies conspire. He has sternly promised "harsh action" against any coup attempt and proceeded to minimize all possible threats to his position. On January 13, he ordered the reshuffle of key posts within the armed forces. The move was widely seen as an attempt to curb the influence of the army, traditionally the most powerful branch of the military. Most notable was the replacement of armed-forces spokesman Maj.-Gen. Sudrajat by an air-force marshal.
Sudrajat had been an outspoken critic of Wahid, often stepping beyond his role as military spokesman. "He was acting as if he were the spokesman of the coordinating minister [Wiranto]," says military analyst M.T. Arifin of Diponegoro University. Sudrajat was stoic about his termination. "As an officer, I have to accept every assignment that is given to me," he told Asiaweek.
Wahid also shook up the business sphere, replacing the chairman of the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency and revamping the management of the state-owned oil-and-gas giant Pertamina.
These changes, while not directly linked to the political maneuvering, conveyed the same message: Wahid would push ahead with his reformist agenda and brook no opposition (which is precisely the argument of his critics, who accuse him of being as autocratic as Suharto was).
Wahid got a little moral support from friends overseas. The US warned against any coup attempt, while Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong arrived in Jakarta with a business delegation and unveiled a multimillion-dollar plan to boost investments in Indonesia. The goodwill visit, says a Singapore diplomat, was to make clear that the island-state did not want to see more chaos in Indonesia. "If Indonesia breaks up, it will directly affect Singapore," he says.
Despite talk that Wiranto himself would be removed in a cabinet shakeup, Wahid has insisted that a reshuffle is not in the cards. Still, Wiranto's position may not be secure. The official Commission to Investigate Human Rights Violations in East Timor is due to release its report next month. There may be very little in it to implicate the top generals in last year's violence. But this would not necessarily stop reformists or human-rights groups – or Wahid – from using it as a pretext to bring Wiranto down. Just as the military plots, so too does Wahid, and the maneuvering continues.