Tim Dodd, Banda Aceh – Only months after Indonesia's ignominious exit from East Timor, the die is already cast in Aceh, the next rebellious province to demand independence from the Jakarta central Government.

Support for independence is overwhelming in Aceh and the Indonesian military has lost control of most of the province, situated at the north-west tip of Sumatra, to the rebel Free Aceh Movement (GAM).

"Most of Aceh is occupied by GAM," admitted the Indonesian military commander in the capital city of Banda Aceh, Colonel Syarifuddin Tippe, on the eve of Saturday's anniversary of the founding of the rebel movement 23 years ago.

The military and police are still at their posts across the province and continue to patrol the main roads. But in the paddy fields only a few kilometres off the main coastal road the countryside belongs to GAM.

In the Pidie district, a GAM stronghold, the independence movement raised its flag on Saturday in a military ceremony not far from the main route from Banda Aceh to the neighbouring north Sumatra province. And along the road, where Indonesian security forces were patrolling, the flag flew from houses, power poles and bridges.

Independence leaders tried to minimise the bloodshed on the anniversary by ordering the population not to antagonise Indonesian troops. But soldiers wounded two in Pidie when they opened fire outside the district army headquarters on a convoy carrying the independence flag. Unconfirmed reports yesterday said that 10 were killed in a separate incident in which troops opened fire.

GAM leaders raised their flag at numerous sites around the province on Saturday away from army scrutiny and read a message to followers from their ageing, exiled leader, Tengku Hasan di Tiro, who lives in Sweden. "I call on all citizens of Aceh, men and women, old and young, to get ready to fight the enemy if they attack us. We will turn each inch of our homeland into a war zone," he said.

There is a some chance that serious negotiations between Jakarta and the Acehnese independence movement will begin soon, after a backdown by GAM from its previous refusal to countenance any talks with Jakarta.

The movement is prepared to back a new breed of Acehnese leaders, from the student and intellectual movement, which is preparing to talk with Jakarta about their minimum demand for a referendum on independence. GAM is also willing to accept a referendum, a change from its previous demand that Indonesia unconditionally withdraw.

This week, all the major Acehnese independence organisations will meet to form a committee to negotiate with Jakarta for a referendum.

But if Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid does not agree to a vote, then "we will conduct the referendum by ourselves", said Mr Muhammad Nazor, head of the Information Centre for Acehnese Independence (SIRA).

As one of the main organisers of the November 8 referendum rally in Banda Aceh, which saw up to 1 million people demonstrate in favour of a poll, Mr Nazar has the popular support to make it happen.

There is no doubt what that outcome of a referendum will be. The strength of the Aceh independence movement has surged since Indonesia offered the choice of independence to East Timor earlier this year. Colonel Syarifuddin said that, in his view, "all of the Acehnese, 99.9 per cent, will vote for independence if there is ever a referendum".

But it is inconceivable that the military, which undermined official policy to offer a referendum to East Timor, will permit one in Aceh.

The chief army spokesman, Major General Sudrajat, said on Saturday that the Jakarta Government would first try to meet the separatist threat with dialogue and diplomacy.

"If these two ways fail, then the last step that has to be taken is repressive [actions]. That action must be taken to uphold the sovereignty of the State of the Unitary Republic of Indonesia,' he said.

That sovereignty is already lost. In the West Aceh and South Aceh districts, GAM is virtually in full control, and Colonel Syarifuddin concedes this. If the Indonesian military continues its opposition to a referendum then the only alternative is a bloody civil war.