Amy Chew of Reuters in Jakarta – The odds on Indonesia holding on to Aceh are no better than even, and a political solution must be found to stop separatist pressure breaking the country apart, the Regional Autonomy Minister said.

Ryaas Rasyid said separatists had been mounting an effective campaign for a referendum on independence.

Asked what the chances were that Aceh would break away, he said: "I think 50-50. Psychologically, they have been successful in internalising the spirit of referendum among the people."

Mr Rasyid said time was running out to solve the Aceh problem. "They are moving faster than we do. A political solution is important here," he said.

Mr Rasyid acknowledged Aceh was a litmus test – and would determine whether the vast archipelago spread across 17,000 islands would hold together.

"It's the most serious situation we are facing now. If Indonesia should disintegrate, it would start in Aceh and Irian Jaya, that's what I believe," he said. "If we could solve Aceh and Irian Jaya, it would be helpful to maintaining the continuation of the unitary state."

Jakarta also faces separatist pressure in southwest Sulawesi island and in the Sumatran province of Riau.

Indonesia's new Government has made preserving national unity a central priority, and plans to offer more autonomy to try to placate restive provinces. The new cabinet post of Regional Autonomy Minister was created in line with this aim.

Mr Rasyid said his job was to provide "technical support" to any political solution to Aceh, including special autonomy.

As the head of the newly-created ministry, Mr Rasyid is charged with holding the country together by shifting power and wealth from the centre to the provinces to ease regional tensions.

He is the architect of the regional autonomy and fiscal balance law which will give more power and wealth to the provinces, and which he hopes to implement in January.

Mr Rasyid expects to face resistance from central government agencies opposed to giving up their power to the provinces.

Indonesia aimed to bring those suspected of violating human rights in Aceh to trial as soon as possible, Minister of Human Rights Hasballah Saad, an Achenese, said yesterday.