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Balancing act will create problems

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Sydney Morning Herald - October 27, 1999

David Jenkins – Indonesia's new Cabinet doesn't look too bad at first glance, with some impressive names in the list of ministers.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr Alwi Shihab, is a sophisticated moderate who once taught at Harvard.

The Minister of Defence, Dr Juwono Sudarsono, has a PhD from the London School of Economics, and is a civilian to boot – Indonesia's first civilian defence minister in 40 years.

The Attorney-General, Marzuki Darusman, is a reform-minded politician who won respect as head of the Indonesian Human Rights Commission. The chief economic minister, Kwik Kian Kie, is a reformer whose name will reassure the markets and the International Monetary Fund.

But the Cabinet is an artifice built on compromise and deal-making, with pay-offs to the modernist Muslims who helped Abdurrahman Wahid, an Islamic conservative, over the line in his late run for the presidency and with necessary plums for the party of the vice-president, Megawati Sukarnoputri.

It remains to be seen whether this disparate group of individuals, who represent such a range of political opinion, can work effectively together as policymakers and administrators, especially given the hands-off style of Wahid and Megawati. "That balancing of power will create substantial problems," one political analyst said.

Many Indonesians will welcome the fact that Wahid has begun to clip the wings of the military (TNI). But they will be aware that the new president has done so in a tentative way. Juwono, a respected professor of political science, thoughtful, measured and highly articulate, is a conservative who believes in step-by-step reform. He also has close links with the TNI.

"The appointment of Juwono is quite a nice piece of political compromise," one analyst said. "It sends a good signal about political reform and about not having active or recently retired military people in that sort of portfolio, and he's someone the TNI can probably live with." The problem is that what Wahid has given with one hand he may have taken away with the other.

The former defence minister/TNI commander, General Wiranto, whose reputation has been tarnished by the events in East Timor, becomes Co-ordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs, above Juwono. Although Wiranto loses his position as TNI commander, a far more powerful post than that of defence minister, the TNI job goes to an ally, Admiral Widodo. It is not clear what the army, always the dominant service in the TNI, will think of having a man in white as its boss. Nor has Wahid dispensed with the services of other generals. He has no fewer than four, including Wiranto, in his cabinet.

Retired Lieutenant-General Suryadi Sudirja takes over the powerful Home Affairs Ministry. Lieutenant-General Bambang Yudhoyono, a Wiranto rival who might yet have a chance to become TNI commander, has been moved sideways to the powerful – and lucrative – Ministry of Mines and Energy. Lieutenant General Agum Gumelar becomes Minister of Communications.

Shihab's appointment would seem to be good news for Australia. He said this week that Canberra and Jakarta needed to put their relationship back on track.

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