Tim Dodd – General Wiranto knows who to blame for Indonesia's problems. It's a man in a black dinner suit with a mobile phone who is secretly directing the host of dark forces tearing at the unity of the nation.

Wiranto, together with President B.J. Habibie, presided over the Armed Forces Day ceremonies at the General's Jakarta headquarters yesterday and, after the formations of troops had marched and wheeled, this message was delivered to the nation on live television in a piece of none-to-subtle political theatre.

First came groups of dancers in spectacular traditional costumes, one group from each of the country's main ethnic divisions, who performed under the red-and-white national flag.

But this happy reverie was spoilt by the guy in the dinner suit, a James Bond-style villain, who brought with him a horde of masked followers dressed in black. To ensure the meaning was clear, most of them had provokator or gadungan (impostor) written prominently on their tops.

After receiving orders via the mobile, they proceeded to accost each ethnic group the Irian Jayans, the Dayaks, the Bataks, the Balinese and so on tempting them to betray the national ideals. But, happily, they failed and the performance ended with patriotic songs as the whole cast, backed by a thousand or so troops, swayed to the music in a sea of red-and-white.

The military has an interest in blaming others for what is going wrong in Indonesia, because a large number of Indonesians are blaming them. The reputation of the military, the much vaunted people's army which fought the independence war against the Dutch with high popular support, is at an all-time low.

This week the Indonesian news magazine Tempo published a poll, which sampled opinion from a diverse and representative section of the population, on the army's standing. The results are devastating for Wiranto.

They reveal that Indonesians want major reform to the army's current pervasive role in the community, business and government. And far from buying the line that the army is important to the stability of the nation, many respondents think it is part of the problem. Since the earliest days of the republic the army has played a role in politics and business, at first from necessity, but later because it gave the military a strong power base. And the business role gave ready access to funds which enhanced both the army budget and the personal fortunes of its officers.

But the Tempo poll found that 70 per cent of people are opposed to the army's dwifungsi, or dual function, in political affairs as well as its core function of maintaining security. It also found that 66 per cent oppose the system which automatically awards the army seats in the national and provincial parliaments.

And 61 per cent of people say they want the army to "return to the barracks", while 80 per cent say they are worried by the army's close "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours" relations with businesses.

The army is also not convincing people that it is successful at its primary role of guarding the security and stability of the nation. The poll asked respondents whether the army is the solution or part of the problem in three of Indonesia's current trouble spots. In each case, more think it is part of the problem: in Aceh (where independence sentiment runs high) by a 57 per cent to 9 per cent margin; in East Timor by a 42 per cent to 18 per cent margin; and in violence-wracked Ambon by a 34 per cent to 20 per cent margin.

The poll does not test the popularity of Wiranto himself. But his move to force through a security law in the dying days of the old Parliament, which updated his emergency powers, caused huge protests last month. Yesterday students burned him in effigy in the Javanese city of Bandung.

At the moment, with Indonesia's highest Parliament about to choose a new president, Wiranto has huge political influence; his block of votes may be decisive in the October 20 presidential vote.

This week he has proved that his parliamentary members are cohesive and opposition contender Megawati Soekarnoputri, who badly needs support, may be forced to turn to him and even offer him the vice-presidency in order to win. If he gets the job, it is likely to spark major demonstrations in many Indonesian cities.

But Wiranto faces numerous other problems. The United Nations will inquire into the army's human rights abuses in East Timor and, if it eventually establishes an investigative tribunal, then army officers, and potentially even Wiranto himself, face being branded criminals and liable to arrest of they leave the country.

A long-time army foe, Amien Rais, was this week elected chairman of the highest national Parliament, the People's Consultative Assembly, which will be amending the constitution during the coming year. He may not be sympathetic to preserving army privileges.

In a speech on Monday, Wiranto said that the army had already recognised problems with its dual function which had "already been corrected at a fundamental level".

But millions of Indonesians don't agree and they are unlikely to blame the man in the black dinner suit. More likely they will blame the General.