Jakarta – Deeper instability is threatening Indonesia as confidence in the four-month-old government of President B.J. Habibie wanes, analysts say.

The brief initial euphoria which greeted the fall of veteran leader Suharto who held this nation together in an iron grip for 32 years has now turned to disillusionment and anger as the country sinks deeper into economic turmoil and hopes for a fast move towards democracy recede.

Despite firm warnings from the military, Indonesia has in the past month seen a resurgence of almost daily street protests against the government and its policies, the armed forces' role in politics and soaring prices. And economic pressures have led to widespread looting and pillaging of businesses, plantations and rice warehouses, as well as violent rioting in towns with no past history of unrest.

"Either Habibie has to drastically reshuffle his cabinet, or he will go under because of the uncontrollable unrest," political observer and leading columnist Mochtar Buchori said.

Hendardi, the executive director of the Indonesian Association for Legal Aid and Human Rights was even more blunt. "The only hope is for the current government to be replaced," he said. "These are all signs of a crisis of authority for the government. The government no longer inspires authority, but instead has managed only to show its incompetence," Buchori said.

Besides lacking legitimacy in the eyes of much of the population, its own dilly-dallying in handling various aspects of promised economic and political reforms has further weakened its position. "No one trusts this government any more," Buchori said. How could people put their confidence in a government which has repeatedly gone back on its own words, with officials contradicting each other publicly, he said.

Hendardi said the government will continue to be plagued by doubts about its legitimacy in the coming months. "This is a government that was the result of a 'passing of the baton' of power and not the product of democratic succession," Hendardi said

Habibie, as then vice-president was handed power by the resigning Suharto on May 21, without a convention of the nation's highest legislative body, the People's Consultative Assembly, as the constitution stipulates.

The argument prevailing in the early days of Habibie's presidency – that the new government be allowed to prove itself first – was no longer valid, Hendardi said. He said that escalating protests and unrest was only to be expected. "This is a manifestation of the people's dissatisfaction that after more than three decades of structural injustice (under Suharto) the government has been unable to rapidly respond to remedy it," he said. "The people have no guarantee, or even the prospect of a guarantee that there will be an improvement in the economic and political situation," he added.

Both pointed to contradictory government moves, in politics and the economy. They cited the pledge to release political prisoners and the slow pace and selective nature of its implementation, and the announcement of a plan to probe Suharto's wealth that was quickly followed by a ministerial statement stressing the probe would be a mere "clarification."

They also cited a lack of transparency in dealing with the supply and provision of essentials, including rice, which has been blamed for aggravating shortages and soaring prices. "No competence, no direction, result in no authority. With no authority, how can the government try to impose order?," Hendardi said.

The armed forces, traditionally a strong binding force for the nation, have also increasingly come under attack for past abuses, and their political role is now subject to mounting opposition. "The military is now too busy redefining themselves, don't expect much," Buchori said.

Armed forces chief General Wiranto said there were "certain sides" taking advantage of the current reform drive to do everything without regard for legal constraints and the national interest, the Pelita daily said Saturday. He said this disturbed the government's program for overcoming the crisis. "Therefore, let us join forces with the people and all components of the society to overcome the problems faced by the nation," Wiranto said.