By Farhan Haq, New York – The US Senate's passage this week of restrictions on arms sales to Indonesia and demands for further political reforms have pleased some pro-democracy activists, who welcome the signs that Washington plans to keep some pressure on Jakarta.
However, as Edwin Gozal – a leading member of Indonesia's left-wing People's Democratic Party (PRD) now visiting the United States – argues, the US government is also less likely to criticise Jakarta following the ouster this May of longtime dictator Suharto.
"We don't have any illusions that they will change their policies," Gozal says of the US leadership. Despite continued the torture and detention of opposition leaders by the military-backed regime in Jakarta, he contends, "the United States says, 'Now they're cleaning up'."
At the same time, however, the Senate's passage on Wednesday of language asserting that any US agreement to sell weapons to Indonesia "shall state that the items will not be used in East Timor", invaded by the Indonesian Army (ABRI) in 1975, shows lingering doubts over Jakarta's record. The Senate amendments to the body's larger Foreign Operations Appropriations bill also adds that Jakarta must "release individuals detained or imprisoned for their political views".
Ever since Suharto was replaced by longtime aide Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie as Indonesian president in May – following the collapse of the Indonesian rupiah and student-led riots – Washington has followed seemingly contradictory impulses. On the one hand, it wants to back Habibie as he follows some democratic reforms and pro-liberalisation policies; on the other, it is wary of the eccentric Habibie and remains critical of the regime's still-poor rights record.
The worry for opposition leaders like Gozal, a supporter of the student movement that included the PRD, is that any focus on the recent reforms will lose sight of the ways that the government remains unchanged since Suharto's fall. He says that eight PRD leaders remain in detention, despite Habibie's promises to free political prisoners.
He is equally cynical about the recent ouster from the military of Gen. Prabowo Subianto, Suharto's son-in-law and former head of the dreaded Kopassus military units, by the ABRI Chief of Staff, Gen. Wiranto. "Now Prabowo and Kopassus are described as evil, but (Wiranto) is the same as Prabowo – he is an authoritarian general," Gozal argues. "Prabowo is being sacked, but there's no sign that he will be jailed, or will be taken to a free, independent court to stand trial. They still want to maintain unity within the Army."
Nevertheless, Jakarta has had to change its ways in recent months, with Prabowo's ouster just the latest sign that the most visible symbols of the Suharto era are being gradually eliminated.
Last month, Indonesia agreed to speed up peace talks on East Timor with Portugal and the United Nations, promising a wide-ranging autonomy for the former Portuguese colony within the year. According to Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas, the autonomy could allow Timorese to control most aspects of government except for foreign affairs, defence and "certain monetary and fiscal policies".
Yet Jakarta's offer has not satisfied rights groups and supporters of independence for East Timor. "Although President Habibie has said he is willing to negotiate a partial autonomy for East Timor, he continues to oppose a UN-supervised referendum," says John Miller, spokesman for the US-based East Timor Action Network.
Yet Miller contends that the Senate restriction that all US weapons sales – including any transactions involving lethal equipment or helicopters – to Indonesia cannot be used in East Timor means that Congress "is saying East Timor is not part of Indonesia". Moreover, the latest Senate action comes two months after the body unanimously passed a resolution urging President Bill Clinton to work with the United Nations "to support an internationally supervised referendum on self-determination" for East Timor.
The pressure on Indonesia to solve the East Timor crisis has led Jakarta to consider many other steps that were once seen as difficult, including the withdrawal of several hundred ABRI troops in recent weeks and the release of some political detainees. But even in those areas, progress has been limited – and Alatas has insisted that Timorese resistance leader Xanana Gusmao will remain in detention even as other political prisoners are freed.
"Xanana Gusmao does not qualify in the present phase of amnesties," Alatas said last month. "He has killed, he has burned villages ...It is for these criminal acts that he has been brought before the court and convicted." Nevertheless, the period since Habibie's rise has seen the release of dozens of other activists, including veteran Indonesian labour leader Mukhtar Pakpahan, who Gozal believes can be a leader of a collective opposition movement.
However, Gozal is skeptical about the prospects for democratic change in Indonesia, noting that restrictions in electoral laws make it difficult for political parties to conduct nationwide campaigns and that the opposition has been "more fragmented" since Suharto's fall. "There is no strong feeling like they had in the past," he says of opposition leaders, including Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter of Indonesian founder Sukarno, and Islamist politician Amien Rais. Arguing that Rais has seemed more content with Habibie in recent weeks, Gozal complains, "We can't rely on some prima donna political figures ...The students must take the initiative."