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Indonesia, IMF reach agreement

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Kyodo - April 2, 1998

Christine T. Tjandraningsih, Jakarta – After more than two weeks of negotiations, Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have reached an accord on revised target figures for the country's 1998/1999 budget, a government official said Thursday.

The official, who asked not to be named, said the revision includes new assumptions about the exchange rate of the rupiah, the country's currency, about the inflation rate, which is likely to soar, and about the economic growth rate, which is expected to shrink.

The agreement, which still needs approval by visiting IMF Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer, came as students in the city of Yogyakarta in central Java clashed with riot police during a protest over economic and political reforms, resulting in 77 injuries and leaving four students listed as missing.

The government official said the IMF team, led by Asia-Pacific Director Hubert Neiss, and the Indonesian economic team will most likely agree on an exchange rate of 6,000 rupiahs to the U.S. dollar in the revised budget, which began Wednesday.

Both sides, according to the official, have also predicted a shrinkage in the economy of 3% to 6% and inflation of almost 50% for the fiscal year, which will end March 31, 1999.

In January, the government announced an IMF-sponsored fiscal budget that targeted zero economic growth, 20% inflation, and an exchange rate of 5,000 rupiahs to the dollar, different from the government's earlier predictions of 4% economic growth, 9 % inflation, and an exchange rate of 4,000 rupiahs.

Relations between Indonesia and the IMF hit a low point in February when the country was thought to be backing out of its commitment to the IMF-sponsored reforms agreed to in January.

This resulted in the delay of a 3 billion dollar installment of the 43 billion dollar IMF-led rescue fund scheduled to be disbursed in the middle of last month.

The Indonesian economy has been battered by a sharp plunge in the value of the rupiah, which hit its lowest level – 17,000 to the U.S. dollar – in January, compared with 2,450 before the crisis began last July.

The situation has incited a series of rallies since February by university students across the country calling for economic and political reforms. The Asian Development Bank and the World Bank have pledged to provide humanitarian aid under a short-term program – which is expected to total 1.5 billion to 3 billion dollars – to finance the importing of staple goods, medicines and hospital equipment.

Indonesia's major donor countries have also announced similar commitments, including the provision of trade financing.

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