Keith B. Richburg, Jakarta – Indonesia-Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous country, is sliding steadily toward economic and social chaos.

There are outbreaks of rioting and looting daily in the towns and villages of Java and Sumatra, targeted at suspected hoarders and profiteers. The country's ethnic Chinese minority lives in fear, with some seeking refuge in police stations and army barracks, others seeking passports to leave. A severe drought has left food in short supply, while in some areas the distribution system has broken down. Unemployment is mounting. Factories no longer function. People don't even bother paying their electricity bills.

The fate of 200 million people – as well as many of Asia's key financial markets – depends solely on the whims and reactions of one man: President Suharto.

After 32 years in power, Suharto remains an enigma not only to the outside world, but also to his own people. His leadership style is aloof. He is rarely interviewed, and when he speaks in public, the former general is given to cryptic comments that analysts spend days or weeks trying to decipher.

He is pulled between competing demands and forces – his relatives with their multiple business interests; his team of Western-trained economic technocrats known as the "Berkeley Mafia"; the powerful military that props up his regime; and the new breed of "economic nationalists" with an Indonesia-first agenda. Yet Suharto keeps his own counsel, almost never revealing his opinions.

One of the paradoxes of Indonesia's current conundrum is that while Suharto is facing the gravest challenge ever to his hold on the country, he is also at the peak of his power. Next month he is set to be appointed to a seventh five-year term by a 1,000- member assembly picked largely by him. Democracy backers, such as Megawati Sukarnoputri, have been marginalized. The military, the only force capable of removing Suharto, is more firmly under his sway than ever. Even his critics – now more brazen than ever in calling for Suharto to step down – concede they can think of no credible alternative.

"We don't have a credible opposition that can replace him immediately," said Jusuf Wanandi of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"He is the highest military commander," said Laksamana Sukardi, an economist and consultant aligned with the opposition. "He decides the promotions and appointments in the army. He appoints the central bank governor, the boards of directors of state-owned companies; he decides who will be chairman of the securities and exchange commission; he appoints the judges, the members of parliament. . . . Under normal circumstances, nobody has any chance to challenge Suharto."

For many Indonesian and foreign analysts, that paradox has led to the current stalemate. With Indonesia's predicament now viewed as more a crisis of confidence than a problem of economics, the country cannot hope to begin reviving its battered financial sector and reversing the downward spiral as long as Suharto and Company – his relatives, friends and business associates – remain in charge. But without Suharto, most see only more chaos, more uncertainty, and perhaps even more bloodshed and another violent upheaval similar to the slaughter of 1965, in which thousands of ethnic Chinese and communist sympathizers were slain.

The most startling thing to emerge in three weeks of interviews with a cross-section of people here and around the region, including academics, political activists, Asian and Western diplomats, regional financial analysts, journalists and others – is that the overall view of the country's future is universally gloomy. Many here seem convinced that Suharto has entered the endgame of his rule; either politics or his own mortality will see to that. No one is certain how or when the end will come, but few think it will come smoothly or peacefully.

"This is a very dire situation we are facing," said Wanandi. "It's more than 50 percent gloomy. If the misery deepens, then 'people power' can still happen here. But it will be anarchy, not by design."

"Is the situation going to spiral out of control?" a Western diplomat here asked rhetorically. "We can't answer that." Suharto is making no concession to mortality. Preparing to start his next five-year term, he is believed to be making no plans to step down or even to begin grooming a potential successor. He is likely to name his longtime friend, B. J. Habibie, the research and technology minister, as vice president, but most analysts believe that Habibie will remain in Suharto's shadow and that the appointment will not mean that Habibie is to be his successor.

On the contrary, one Western diplomat said a presidential intimate told him recently that Suharto is now busily mapping out his plans for the next five years. He is taking seriously the idea of some modest adjustments in the closed political system, the aide said. But the changes would come in 2001.

Analysts and scholars here see only three possibilities for change – even while conceding that at the moment, none of them looks likely. Those scenarios include:

A People Power uprising, similar to the popular revolt that ousted longtime Philippine dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos. There have been scattered anti-Suharto protests in Jakarta, but they are small, sporadic and easily outnumbered and contained by the police and military. Also, academics here point out that it took People Power more than two years to emerge as a potent force in Manila – from the assassination of opposition leader Benigno S. Aquino in late 1983 until the revolt in February 1986.

Whether anything like that can happen here remains problematic. For one thing, a successful People Power movement would require a leader to galvanize the angry masses. Indonesians are angry and frustrated, but as a Western diplomat said, "It's leaderless. ...What you have is scattered unrest, but not a situation that's out of control."

But as Laksamana said, "In a crisis situation – when there's a lot of unemployment, people are hungry, crime is increasing – the normal rules don't apply. Anything can happen."

The emergence of an alternative. Many here have pointed to Sukarnoputri, daughter of Indonesia's independence hero and first president, Sukarno, as one who could mobilize crowds, if not by her own personality then by the magic of her family name and the aura of leadership that surrounds her. She gave a fiery speech last month calling for Suharto to go and offering to be a candidate. But Sukarnoputri has been effectively marginalized from the system. Her supporters insist that Sukarnoputri does have a plan but that it consists of waiting for the right moment to emerge. To move any sooner, they say, would only put her at risk of removal – similar to the way Burma placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest and removed her from effective influence for years.

A military move against Suharto. Most analysts believe that if there is any change at the top in Indonesia, it will come not from the streets and not from Sukarnoputri, but from the powerful armed forces. The military is still the most cohesive institution in the country and by any measure the final arbiter of power here. There are also believed to be a large number of officers, particularly in the lower ranks, who are reform-minded and would like to see a more open system, if not a Western-style democracy.

But the military for the moment remains firmly on Suharto's side. The reasons are varied. The military's top officers support Suharto because they owe their positions to him. The top officers have almost all served as Suharto's adjutants, or assistants, and as political scientist Dewi Fortuna Anwar said, "Suharto doesn't listen to his adjutants." The military also still regards "The Old Man" with awe and respect because of his age and accomplishments.

If a military move against Suharto is unlikely, analysts say, the key reason may be that the military is divided along lines of personal loyalty. There is no one the officers could unite behind as a replacement for Suharto.

For example, Suharto's son-in-law, Prabowo, now heads the special forces unit and is believed to have his own agenda, making it unlikely he would back a takeover bid by the obvious candidate, Wiranto, the new armed forces commander and a former Suharto aide.

Those fault lines were exposed during a recent behind-the-scenes struggle over the endorsement of a new vice president, with some in the military backing the incumbent, Try Sutrisno, and others pushing for Habibie.

"It's all personalities, and it's very shallow," said a Western embassy's military attache. "There's no ideology."