Yang Razali Kassim, Singapore – In total defiance of the financial markets, and acting on a script by President Suharto, the top brass of ABRI, the Indonesian military, further consolidated their ranks this week behind Research and Technology Minister B J Habibie as possible heir apparent.
The first major step to ensure continuity of support for a Suharto-Habibie leadership combination comes in the form of a changing of the guard at the top. The transfer of power from General Feisal Tanjung to General Wiranto as commander-in-chief is from one Habibie supporter to another.
The ascendancy of Gen Wiranto is said to have been approved by President Suharto after the Indonesian leader was certain that the 50-year-old army chief of staff would be committed to a Suharto-Habibie combination for the Number 1 and 2 positions for the next five years starting March 1998.
Apparently, the general, who is a Suharto loyalist, has explicitly conveyed his support to the research minister. So has another key military figure, Major-General Prabowo, the special forces chief who is also Mr Suharto's son-in-law.
Gen Wiranto will, in the coming presidential election, play an important role in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) which will elect the president on March 10 and the vice-president the next day. He has been entrusted to look into legislations that will give special emergency powers to the President should this be required suddenly.
Gen Feisal, whose service Mr Suharto extended for three consecutive years after he reached the mandatory retirement age of 55 in 1994, is German-trained, like Dr Habibie. Speculation that he is slated to become the coordinating minister for defence and security in the new cabinet to be formed after the presidential election may well turn out to be true.
Mr Suharto is expected to officially name Gen Wiranto, 50, as Indonesian Armed Forces Chief at a ceremony next week. The handover, coming days after this week's meeting of ABRI commanders, or Rapim ABRI, suggests that the new commander is obliged to commit himself to the collective resolve of the military top brass. And as far as the choice of vice-president is concerned, ABRI has decided apparently to stand behind Dr Habibie, whatever the financial markets say.
"The name of the candidate for vice-president is already in our pocket. It's now left to the ABRI faction in the MPR to fight for it," ABRI's spokesman Brigadier-General A Wahab Mokodongan said in Jakarta. Significantly, one of Gen Feisal's final acts as commander-in-chief was to effect the 76-year-old President's gameplan for the presidential and vice-presidential elections. It is understood that Gen Feisal met Mr Suharto and asked him unequivocally who he desired as a running mate. Mr Suharto, in no uncertain terms this time, said his preference was for his research minister. The President had also earlier appointed Dr Habibie to head the executive arm of the board of patrons in the ruling Golkar.
But to obscure ABRI's support for Dr Habibie, the military may, with the President's consent, float two candidates fitting the new criteria of a vice-president at home with science and technology. If this goes as planned, the nominee, apart from Dr Habibie, could well be Hartarto, the coordinating minister for production and distribution. Internally however, Dr Habibie will be known as the calon utama, or main candidate.
Should the candidatures of Dr Habibie and Mr Hartarto proceed as scripted, the race for the Number 2 would, on paper, look more crowded than usual as Golkar has made it known it will nominate its chairman Harmoko as well.
But some analysts say ABRI's stand will effectively also reduce the chances of other contenders for vice-president, a post which has become critical this time because whoever holds it stands a good chance of succeeding President Suharto.
Not surprisingly, Ginanjar Kartasasmita, the minister in charge of development planning, made it known earlier this week that he would not wish to run. Although Mr Harmoko seems keen to stand, Mr Suharto has apparently intimated that he will have to first step down as MPR Speaker, which would be a big loss of influence and stature should he fail to win the vice-presidency.
It is believed that other moves are being planned with the blessings of the President to secure the route to the top for Dr Habibie. For instance, a new Habibie-centred alliance may be encouraged with other possible contenders such as the President's daughter Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana or Tutut, and Information Minister Hartono, the former army chief of staff.
Significantly, the military's regrouping around the Suharto-Habibie combination is a departure from ABRI's traditional support for a military man to take the top job in the land. ABRI's acceptance of the growing desire for more civilian rule means it is ready to also forgo support for current vice-president and former commander-in-chief Try Sutrisno, whom some business leaders, such as beleaguered tycoon Sofyan Wanandi, want to support in order to block Dr Habibie's chances.
ABRI's stand is in sharp contrast to comments made by several analysts that the military is deeply divided over the question of succession, particularly over the choice of Dr Habibie. Those close to the research minister say such views tend to ignore the hierarchical relationship between the military and Mr Suharto as supreme commander of the armed forces.
President Suharto, a retired general, has presented himself as a soldier on national duty in a time of crisis. As he has been nominated for yet another term and has agreed to serve again, his choice of running mate becomes a matter of obligatory support by the military rank-and-file.
The question of supporting Dr Habibie was not a difficult problem once Mr Suharto himself had indicated his preference. Constitutionally, the elected president can veto any candidate he is not comfortable with.
Indeed, Mr Suharto exercised this right in the 1988 elections when he forced Jailani "John" Naro, the leader of the Muslim-based party, PPP, out of the race in favour of State Secretary Sudharmono.
Mr Suharto is fully aware of market sentiment concerning his choice of Dr Habibie. The rupiah plunged when the Indonesian leader some time ago indicated his preference for the minister as his new running mate by announcing new criteria for candidates contesting the post.
But the fact that he remains firm in his choice means that Mr Suharto is not going to succumb to market sentiment on what he sees as essentially a matter for the nation to determine. He has consistently said, even under pressure to be clearer about his succession plans, that Indonesians must live by the Constitution and that the Constitution requires the national leadership to be determined by the MPR.
Suggestions that the rupiah will collapse if the MPR picks a leader which the markets are not comfortable with clash directly with the President's conviction. Such suggestions are being taken as an attempt to exploit the financial crisis to influence the outcome of the presidential elections.
It is for this reason that Sofyan Wanandi now finds himself in trouble with the military and with President Suharto. And, as the protests have shown, Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew's remarks on the vice-presidential race have also been received in the same vein.
Indeed, of late, statements from the Indonesian leadership, civilian as well as military, suggest that the mood is hardening against the imperfections of the market and the adverse effects of a volatile rupiah on economic and political stability.
Prices of basic goods are soaring despite reforms mandated by the International Monetary Fund, leading to social unrest and inter-ethnic tensions across the sprawling country. This has increased pressure to introduce some form of control on currency speculation before the country falls apart. The move to introduce the currency board system should be seen in this context.
Mr Suharto even talked about this in terms of a "killing strategy" to break the back of speculators. And almost in the same breath, although a few days later, he warned of a "plot" to destroy the Indonesian economy by sending the rupiah crashing through the 20,000 barrier. The military also seems convinced that the current financial crisis is no longer a purely market phenomenon. Gen Feisal, for instance, spoke this week about how the financial crisis was no longer making any sense.
Said the Jakarta military commander, Maj-Gen Syafrie Shamsuddin: "Outsiders cannot do anything if our own speculators do not support them. These are the traitors of the nation."
Asked if the sharp fall of the rupiah was deliberately manipulated, he added: "Certainly. It's those speculators. They are gamblers. Their target is to disturb our economic stability. They do not care because they have no sense of nationalism."
By closing ranks behind the Suharto-Habibie combination, the military is clearly supporting Mr Suharto's efforts to retake the initiative from the markets, never mind how difficult this may prove.
But the political leadership, the generals and different groups in Indonesia are obviously becoming increasingly annoyed by suggestions that the rupiah will crash uncontrollably if Indonesia chooses a leader the markets cannot agree with.
Dr Habibie himself has been keeping a relatively low profile so far. Perhaps he is not taking any chances, or perhaps he knows his seat in the vice-presidency is not a foregone conclusion until the election is actually over.
But he had some stinging words at a parliamentary commission hearing: "It is a sad day if Indonesia's leadership has to be determined by the rate of the dollar and the prices of stocks in Singapore."
[On February 18, Reuters reported that Indonesian Vice-President Try Sutrisno as saying he did not want a second term in office after the military backed Habibie for the post - James Balowski.]