Michael Richardson, Singapore – A senior U.S. commander has expressed concern that Indonesia could be on the verge of social and political instability. The question of domestic turbulence is critical to the U.S. military because of fears that instability in Indonesia could jeopardize secure the passage of American warships through the Strait of Malacca, the quickest route between American bases in the Pacific and such flash points as the Gulf.

In unusually candid comments, the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Admiral Joseph Prueher, said that the Indonesian authorities had many problems to grapple with and that the nation's institutions were weaker than they should be to cope with those problems. "And so I worry about the stresses and strains on the government," he said in a speech Monday to the Royal United Services Institute for Defense Studies in London. "It's a really tough situation," Admiral Prueher said, Reuters reported. "Even if all the good decisions are made, there is trouble ahead. There is no economic and political stability. We're trying to work in an economic, political and military way to be as supportive as we can to try to bring this back in line."

Referring to recent riots by majority Muslims in some parts of Indonesia, which were triggered by reports of food hoarding and price increases by ethnic Chinese shopkeepers, Admiral Prueher reportedly said: "The word 'amok' is a Malay word. Indonesians will riot at the drop of a hat, so it is a very tough issue."

This view of turbulence ahead in Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation, arises because of a looming recession triggered by financial turmoil; increasing unemployment, social unrest, and ethnic and religious tension; and the unsettled question of who will succeed President Suharto, who has held power for 32 years but is now 76 and in suspect health. Such instability could unleash nationalist or Islamic forces hostile to the United States and opposed to the presence of U.S. military forces in the region and in the Malacca strait, which separates Malaysia and Singapore from the Indonesian island of Sumatra and links the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. Mr. Suharto's generally pro-Western regime has so far contained these forces.

Colonel Thomas Boyd, chief of public affairs at the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Command in Honolulu, questioned Friday about news agency reports of Admiral Prueher's remarks, said they were fairly accurate. "Any time a country looks as though it could be less than cooperative with the rights of transit passage through international straits would be of concern to us," Colonel Boyd said. "We do not think we are looking at that in Indonesia but we are worried about how things are going there."

Two of the three U.S. aircraft carriers now in the Gulf off Iraq, accompanied by escorting ships and submarines reached there from the Paicific through the Malacca strait. "The United States," said Charles Morrison, a regional security specialist at the East-West Center in Honolulu, "has a mayor interest in doing everything it can to ensure a peaceful political transition in Indonesia. "There's deep concern in the U.S. militaty about the potential for instability in Indonesia because of its size and strategic location. There is no way for American naval forces to move easily between the Indian and Pacific oceans without going through, or very close, to Indonesia."

The U.S. Navy has calculated that if an aircraft carrier and its escorts based in Japan were unable to use the Malacca strait or two other international straits that pass through Indonesia, they would need an additional 15 days to reach the Gulf by a more circuitous route.

Indonesia has a population of 200 million, and the government has estimated that about 10 percent of its work force of 90 million will be unemployed by the end of 1998, the Jakarta Post reported Friday. But the newspaper said that the official estimate could be understated and quoted the All Indonesia Workers' Union as saying unemployment could reach 13 million by the end of the year.