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Indonesia's next vice-president

Source
Wall Street Journal - February 3, 1998

Raphael Pura, Jakarta – Trying to project Indonesia's political future has become a national obsession, as President Suharto prepares to begin his seventh term next month amid the toughest economic downturn in more than 30 years.

Much of the speculation has centered on Mr. Suharto's still-to-be-announced choice as vice president, a post that is growing in importance as the 76-year-old president ages. Mr. Suharto has privately indicated that he's leaning toward naming 61-year-old Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie as his vice president.

Mr. Habibie – like some other potential nominees – would be a controversial choice. He's popular with some nationalist Islamic groups and enjoys a rapport with Mr. Suharto, his mentor for more than 20 years. But the foreign and Chinese business communities, as well as segments of Indonesia's non-Muslim and moderate Muslim communities and the military, aren't happy with the prospect of Mr. Habibie as No. 2.

Mr. Suharto doesn't have to signal his choice formally before early March, so Indonesians continue to spin out scenarios. But Indonesian political analysts say the president's ultimate decision is unlikely to be challenged; it hasn't been in six previous sessions of the People's Consultative Assembly, which selects the president and his deputy.

Here is a glimpse of some other potential vice presidential nominees, should Mr. Suharto decide not to tap Mr. Habibie. This isn't an exhaustive list; Mr. Suharto has a reputation for not tipping his hand until the last moment, and a dark-horse selection is always a possibility.

  • Incumbent Vice President Gen. Try Sutrisno, 62 years old. The retired army general is seen as a possible interim leader. He's from the mainstream Java political heartland, has solid military and Muslim credentials and evinces a tolerant, low-key public persona that makes him agreeable to many segments of the political spectrum. But Mr. Try has some drawbacks: His mild personality is considered uncharismatic, and he exhibits little of the forcefulness needed to see Indonesia through a crisis. In addition, Mr. Try is not known to have strong economic views. * Ginandjar Kartasasmita, 56, head of Indonesia's National Development Planning Board. A savvy bureaucrat, Mr. Ginandjar boasts a decades-long career in a variety of important government posts, and an intellectual's grasp of economic ideas. He also has a shrewd nose for grass-roots politics, plus wide international experience: He studied in Japan and is fluent in Japanese and English. But some critics regard him as an economic nationalist who is mistrusted by Indonesia's more orthodox economic technocrats and by the ethnic-Chinese business community. As a former air force officer (an administrator, not a pilot), Mr. Ginandjar may lack the optimum military credentials to win strong backing from an armed forces dominated by army brass.
  • Army chief of staff Gen. Wiranto, 50. A professional soldier from central Java who once served as Mr. Suharto's adjutant, Gen. Wiranto enjoys a reputation as a competent, popular officer. Unlike others in Indonesia's officer corps, he's not perceived as a particularly "political" general, despite his ties to Mr. Suharto. Still, Gen. Wiranto has been loyal to the president and appears to support the existing nexus between politics and the military. For example, last year he allowed his wife and 21-year-old daughter to be appointed to the People's Consultative Assembly, a move that drew criticism. Gen. Wiranto also lacks broad national and international recognition, and isn't known for a particular economic philosophy.
  • Siti Hardijanti Rukmana, 49, President Suharto's eldest daughter. A vice-chairwoman of Golkar, the government's political arm and the dominant faction in Indonesia's Parliament, the stylish Mrs. Rukmana is the most politically visible of the presidential children. As an indefatigable defender of government programs and policies, Mrs. Rukmana has demonstrated campaigning skills. But her high profile may severely cloud the prospect of winning her father's nomination as vice president. With Mr. Suharto facing growing criticism for granting business privileges to his children, Mrs. Rukmana's nomination would be widely viewed as a "dynastic" choice that would be certain to spark a fresh political firestorm.
  • Information Minister R. Hartono, 56. Gen. Wiranto's predecessor as army chief of staff, Mr. Hartono has cultivated ties to Indonesian Muslim activists and is perceived to have some influence with Mr. Suharto through his close friendship with Mrs. Rukmana. Problems: Mr. Hartono, who has actively campaigned for Golkar, is considered a "political" officer who isn't well-regarded by some of Indonesia's professional officer corps. He, too, lacks particular economic training or experience, and isn't widely known within Indonesia or abroad.
  • Hartarto Sastrosoenarto, Coordinating Minister for Production and Distribution Affairs. An Australian-trained chemical engineer, Mr. Hartarto has been a cabinet minister for 15 years, at various times overseeing industrial and trade affairs. Mr. Hartarto is a bureaucratic survivor not particularly known as an influential policy-maker. His main strength derives from his image as one of Mr. Suharto's most trusted loyalists. A long shot, Mr. Hartarto is a figure without wide national recognition or an international profile.
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