Anastasya Lavenia Yudi, Jakarta – The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate plummeted to 17,600 per US dollar during the long weekend on Friday, May 15, 2026. Based on Google data, the rupiah reached 17,602 on Saturday morning, May 16, 2026.
The Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, Ibrahim Asuaibi, believes that the weakening rupiah is influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Another factor is the direction of interest rates set by the U.S. central bank, the Fed.
The leadership of The Fed has shifted from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh. "Most likely, considering the significant inflation in America and the continuously rising gasoline prices, it has a significant impact on inflation. It is highly likely that in 2026, the U.S. central bank will not lower interest rates," Ibrahim stated on Friday, May 15, 2026.
Meanwhile, internally, Ibrahim revealed that Bank Indonesia can only intervene in the international market during the long weekend period. This significantly impacts the rupiah in the overseas market.
Ibrahim predicts that the rupiah could weaken to the level of 18,000 per US dollar by the end of May 2026. He mentioned that if this level is reached, the exchange rate could weaken to 22,000 per US dollar.
If the rupiah breaches the level of 18,000 per US dollar or even 22,000 per US dollar, Ibrahim estimates that Bank Indonesia will raise the benchmark interest rate or BI Rate next June. "It could be a 25 to 50 basis point increase. The aim is to stabilize the rupiah," he said.