Judging from the handling of recent floods and landslides, here is what we can expect to happen when forest and land fires spread across several provinces following the effects of El Nino this year. Initially, the President will be late in visiting the affected areas – due to information not being passed on to those close to him.

Furthermore, response efforts will be carried out in a patchwork manner. Budget constraints are being addressed by relying on community charitable initiatives. Disaster management organizations would not perform optimally due to non-technical issues, such as competition among the President's aides. Exacerbated by the President's impulsive leadership style, the disaster will not be resolved at its core: how to prevent fires, rather than merely extinguishing them.

Ahead of the long dry season, several forest and land fire hotspots have emerged in Riau, Central Kalimantan, and West Kalimantan. It is predicted that drought and forest and land fires will spread even further over the coming year. Victims have been reported at fire sites. In Bengkalis, Riau, a Manggala Agni officer died while on duty. An elderly resident in West Kalimantan died from smoke exposure.

SiPongi, the Ministry of Forestry's forest and land fire monitoring platform, recorded fires on 56,324 hectares from January to March 2026, an area nearly the size of Jakarta. In comparison, the fires in the first three months of 2015 covered around 45,756 hectares. In that year, also affected by El Nino, fires destroyed a total of 2.6 million hectares of forest and land. The World Bank estimated that total losses from that disaster came to Rp221 trillion (US$13 billion), twice the cost of rebuilding Aceh after the 2004 tsunami.

This magazine's coverage uncovered the government's ineffective response to warnings long voiced by researchers. Forest fire management has been practically devoid of clear coordination. In October 2025, the Coordinating Ministry for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs disbanded the Forest and Land Fire Task Force. The handling of these matters was handed over to each respective ministry and agency.

The dissolution of the Peatland and Mangrove Restoration Agency (BRGM) in late 2024 by the Prabowo Subianto administration made the situation worse. That agency had been established to restore areas affected by the 2015 fires. The problem is that this dissolution was not followed by clarity on who would be responsible for managing and protecting peatlands. Some of BRGM's former monitoring assets are now being managed by the Ministry of the Environment. However, some staff were transferred to the Ministry of Forestry.

This institutional fragmentation has left peatlands unmanaged. Even though damage to peat ecosystems – particularly from forestry and plantation activities – is the main cause of the spread of forest and land fires.

In late August 2025, the government established the Peat and Mangrove Ecosystem Management Center under the Ministry of the Environment. Fires had already been breaking out before this institution could begin its work. As the fires spread, the government, including ministries, agencies, and regional governments, found themselves short of funds due to efficiency measures.

The central government boasts of providing an unlimited budget for forest and land fire management. However, the reality on the ground suggests otherwise. The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), for example, only has Rp491 billion (US$29 million), a significant drop from the previous year's budget of Rp2.1 trillion (US$124 million). This budget shortfall is also evident at the regional level. Riau, with its vast peatland area, has allocated just Rp3.6 billion (US$212,000) for fire mitigation.

Given the government's chaotic disaster management, it is hard to hope that the spread of forest and land fires can be contained. As in previous years, several regions – including neighboring countries like Malaysia and Singapore – need to prepare for the resulting haze.

– Read the Complete Story in Tempo English Magazine

Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2099218/bare-bones-measures-to-anticipate-forest-fire