Arnoldus Kristianus, Jakarta – Retail sales in Indonesia slowed at the start of 2026 as consumer spending normalized after the Christmas and New Year holiday season, according to data released by Bank Indonesia on Tuesday.

The central bank reported that the Real Sales Index (IPR) stood at 223.6 in January 2026, reflecting 5.7% year-on-year growth, but showing a 2.7% month-to-month contraction after expanding 3.1% in the previous month.

"On a monthly basis, retail sales in January 2026 contracted by 2.7% month-to-month (mtm) in line with the normalization of public consumption after the National Religious Holidays of Christmas and New Year," said Ramdan Denny Prakoso, Head of BI's Communications Department, in a statement.

Most retail categories recorded declines during the month. The information and communication equipment group posted the steepest drop at -7.7% mtm, followed by spare parts and accessories (-3.8%), food, beverages, and tobacco (-2.5%), and the clothing subcategory (-3%).

The culture and recreation goods group was the only category to record growth, rising 3% (mtm).

Despite the January slowdown, BI expects retail activity to rebound in February 2026. The Real Sales Index is projected to grow 6.9% year-on-year, supported by stronger sales across most product groups, particularly spare parts and accessories, other household equipment, and clothing.

On a monthly basis, retail sales are forecast to increase 4.4% in February. "The increase is driven by stronger public demand during Ramadan and preparations for the National Religious Holiday of Eid al-Fitr 1447 H," Ramdan said.

Meanwhile, BI's survey shows that inflation expectations among retailers are likely to ease in the near term before rising again later in the year.

The General Price Expectation Index (IEH) for April 2026 was recorded at 153.9, lower than 175.7 in March, reflecting price normalization after the Eid holiday period.

However, the index is projected to climb to 157.1 in July 2026, slightly higher than 156.3 in June, driven by seasonal price increases during the start of the new school year.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesias-retail-sales-dip-27-in-january-bi-report