Guteriano Neves – The official inauguration of Timor-Leste's membership in ASEAN has been the main topic in Dili this week and a highlight of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This is a moment of great joy for many Timorese. The theme "Together We Rise" captures a sense of unity and hope inspired by this historic accession.

Timor-Leste's journey toward full membership has been a long one. Although President Jose Ramos-Horta often mentions that the aspiration began as early as 1975, it was not until 2011 that Timor-Leste officially submitted its application. It then took another 14 years for that dream to be realised. One of Horta's jokes is to remark that "easier to enter heaven than ASEAN."

For Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, "this is not only a dream realised, but a powerful affirmation of our journey – marked by resilience, determination and hope". The moment of joy was evident when Gusmao was visibly moved to tears before the Timorese delegation in Kuala Lumpur, while celebrations filled the streets of Bidau Lecidere, Dili, as diplomats, leaders, and ordinary citizens gathered to commemorate what they described a "historic moment."

Despite ongoing domestic challenges, ASEAN membership deserves to be celebrated. In many ways, it represents a balancing act in managing the growing competition among major powers, given Timor-Leste's geostrategic location. Membership provides a vital platform for a small nation like Timor-Leste to engage and contribute to shaping regional and global political landscapes in an increasingly complex and uncertain world – ensuring that its voice is heard in both regional and international forums.

Timor-Leste also joins ASEAN with contributions to offer. For years, Dili has worked hard to assure other ASEAN members that it would not become a burden, despite its development challenges. Its aspiration to join is driven by a deep commitment to regional stability. While Timor-Leste's future remains uncertain, its history is defined by resilience. As a long-time observer of Dili – ASEAN affairs, Ying Hooi eloquently noted that although Timor-Leste is the poorest among its peers, it is "arguably the most idealistic," rooted in its history of resistance, reconciliation, and the rebuilding of democracy.

Amid the celebrations, a crucial question echoed among ordinary Timorese, civil society, journalists, observers, and politicians: "What's next?" and "What are the real implications for ordinary Timorese struggling to make a living in Dili and beyond?"

These are valid concerns that draw attention to domestic development challenges. For many years, Timor-Leste's economy has suffered from excessive reliance on petroleum revenues, resulting in economic vulnerability and weak socio-economic indicators – low GDP per capita, slow growth, low labour force participation, and nearly half the population categorised as multidimensionally poor. Furthermore, due to limited domestic production capacity, the country relies heavily on imported goods to meet local demand, leaving low-income earners particularly vulnerable to external shocks.

ASEAN offers access to markets, but Timor-Leste must do its homework to remain competitive.

In response to these realities, official narratives highlight several potential benefits of ASEAN membership: expanding access to larger markets, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), facilitating the movement of people, and improving skills acquisition. The central argument is that aligning domestic regulations and economic policies with ASEAN standards will promote institutional reform, stimulate private investment, diversify the economy, and generate employment.

However, despite this optimism, public discussions also reveal concerns about the risks associated with deeper integration into regional and global markets. Many of these are evident in social media discussion and media coverage about the issue inside the country. Agriculture – Timor-Leste's main source of livelihood – faces challenges. Dili-based think tank La'o Hamutuk has expressed concern that increased exposure to international markets through free trade agreements could further undermine domestic production and increase the vulnerability of Timorese farmers. In manufacturing, cheap imported goods already make it difficult for locally produced items to compete, further stifling the development of a nascent industrial base. From a security perspective, Fundasaun Mahein, another Dili-based think tank, warns that while ASEAN integration could bring benefits in trade, investment, infrastructure, and tourism, it also raises risks related to illicit activities such as organised crime, drug trafficking, human trafficking, and money laundering – especially in the context of weak regulatory systems.

Regardless of these differing viewpoints, Timor-Leste must address its domestic challenges – with or without ASEAN membership. While joining ASEAN can offer many opportunities, the extent to which these can be maximised will depend largely on domestic political leadership and policy choices.

ASEAN offers access to markets, but Timor-Leste must do its homework to remain competitive. Attracting both foreign and domestic investment requires the government to strengthen regulations, build a competent and efficient bureaucracy, and develop a skilled workforce. While ASEAN and China can provide affordable goods for consumers, without a strategic vision, this could further weaken domestic production capacity.

Official accession to ASEAN is a significant milestone in the country's history and deserves celebration. However, the extent to which Timor-Leste can fully benefit from ASEAN membership will depend on the strategic choices made by its leaders. Joining the organisation also means adhering to its established rules and frameworks, which may limit certain aspects of policy independence.

Source: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/timor-s-asean-accession-what-nex