Bambang Juanda – Lately, the public has once again been presented with economic figures from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) that have triggered various reactions, from awe and confusion to suspicion.

The latest report on Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2025, which reached 5.12 percent year-on-year, for example, has received sharp criticism. This is not only because the figure exceeded the expectations of many economists but also because its 'sense of reality' is considered as not in line with the public's empirical experience, as they still face mass layoffs, soaring food prices, and mounting pressure on household purchasing power.

This kind of polemic does not just appear in economic growth data. Poverty and unemployment data often also raise questions due to the operational definitions used by BPS. Some economists criticize that this growth data appears without adequate methodological transparency: the figures seem to just appear, looking impressive on paper, but are difficult to feel in daily reality.

What is really happening? Is BPS's method outdated? Or is the public lacking an understanding of how statistics work?

The statistics kitchen is more than just numbers

It is important to understand that macroeconomic statistics are not the result of direct observation of the entire population. In many cases, these figures are generated through model-based estimations, sample data, and technical assumptions. For example, gross domestic product (GDP) is calculated using production, expenditure, and income approaches – each with a complex methodological framework and susceptible to revision.

A concrete example can be seen in the calculation of output in special economic zones (SEZs). In the past, SEZ data was estimated through samples or weighting models because actual data was not available. It was only in 2025 that BPS claimed to have conducted a direct census (complete enumeration) thanks to central government intervention. As a result, the output figure could jump drastically. Is this a methodological improvement or political manipulation? The answer depends on one's perspective. However, from a statistical standpoint, data comparing two periods should use a consistent method (apples to apples). When BPS compares this year's figure (from the SEZ census) with last year's (from the SEZ estimation), the economic growth shown has a potential for an upward bias, even if unintentionally.

Where is the public's economic reality?

In an interview with Rhenald Kasali, Deputy Chief of Statistics Indonesia Sonny Harry Budiutomo Harmadi explained that this high growth occurred due to increased mobility from tourism activities during major religious holidays, which boosted consumption for transportation and restaurants. It also reflected the mobilization effect of the digital economy, the creative economy, and a surge in government spending. However, this becomes a problem when macroeconomic growth is not parallel to the quality of the public's microeconomic life.

Household consumption data, which has the highest contribution (54.25 percent), grew by only 4.97 percent (year-on-year), lower than the total gross domestic product growth. This indicates an imbalance in the sources of growth, as it is dominated by government spending and exports. Meanwhile, imports increased by 11.65 percent, driven by a rise in the import of capital goods and raw materials, both in value and volume. Similarly, the wave of layoffs in labor-intensive sectors like textiles and manufacturing makes the public question the validity of the 'inclusive' economic growth narrative, especially since the unemployment rate also decreased, as presented by BPS Chief Amalia Adininggar on May 25, 2025.

Poverty data showing a decrease in the number of poor people has been met with skepticism. The national average poverty line is still around Rp600,000 per month, which is not even enough to buy basic necessities for a week in a big city. This is where the question arises: is BPS's definition of 'poor' still socially relevant? We are also awaiting the development of the National Socio-Economic Single Data, which is reportedly going to be officially updated every three months so that various social assistance programs are not misdirected.

– Read the Complete Story in Tempo English Magazine

[Bambang Juanda is a Professor of Economics at IPB University.]

Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2043404/bps-economic-growth-data-between-fact-and-illusio