Jakarta – The courage to resist shown by the people of Pati, Central Java, could spread quickly and widely like a virus. The protests by people there against the government's arbitrary tax rise have now spread to a number of regions. The central government is partly to blame for this.

The Prabowo Subianto administration has cut the funds transferred to the regions to cover the costs of the ambitious projects that he promised during his campaign. Larger protests could erupt next year because Prabowo will once again reduce the budget for funds to the regions by more than Rp250 trillion. Regents and mayors will choose the easy way to make up the shortfall in revenue by increasing taxes or imposing levies on people's economic activities.

With these cuts, the Prabowo administration is not only damaging fiscal decentralization and regional autonomy but also triggering people's anger in the regions. A number of public service programs, the construction of infrastructure and policies to bring equality to regional economies could come to a standstill. At the same time, in order to patch up the budget, regional leaders could impose higher taxes. These two things could lead to resistance.

There are already clear signs of the protests spreading. People in Bone, South Sulawesi, protested against tax rises. And people in Cirebon, West Java, and Jombang, East Java, are complaining about taxes that were suddenly increased by up to 1,000 percent. Social media is an effective means of spreading the call for opposition.

Despite this, it is possible that movements like that in Pati will quickly fade away. There are at least two reasons for this. Firstly, opposition that is organized spontaneously tends to last only a short time. Participants are easily fooled and tone down their opposition when the political elite promises a resolution. Then there are also logistical constraints.

The demonstrations in Pati died down after the Regional Legislative Council held a plenary session to discuss the right of inquiry. The hope is that this could end in the removal of Regent Sudewo. But it is not clear what will happen with this right of inquiry because there is political lobbying against it.

Meanwhile, the people are having problems organizing a second round of demonstrations because the momentum of opposition has disappeared, and government efforts to contain it are already underway in the form of celebrities and social media influencers being sent to Pati.

Secondly, the political elite, especially in Jakarta, does not see the events in Pati as a response of the people to the way the government is recklessly running the country. They should evaluate and correct decisions in the face of public opposition.

It is true that regional heads have cancelled increases in land and building taxes. But these politicians acted not because of any awareness about mistaken policies, but simply to anticipate the potential of political turbulence like that experienced by the Pati regent. What has happened in Pati showed regional heads the threat of facing large demonstrations and the use of the right of inquiry to unseat them.

This political risk is feared by the elite in the center, including Prabowo Subianto. Therefore, although he was reported to be angry with Pati Regent Sudewo, he does not want the regional head to be dismissed. Prabowo knows that if one regent or mayor loses their seat, similar actions could spread to other regions, and even to the national level, endangering his own position. Prabowo could also face demonstrations and the threat of being deposed if he does not call a halt to his ambitious lighthouse projects. He needs to reexamine his government's programs.

– Read the complete story in Tempo English Magazine

Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2043125/the-pati-demonstrations-domino-effec