Dandi Bajuddin, Jakarta – The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) projects that Indonesia's economic growth may still struggle to reach the 5 percent mark. Eko Listiyanto, Deputy Director of INDEF, stated that the performance in the third quarter of 2025 is likely to be below 5 percent, and the opportunity to reach the target may only arise in the fourth quarter.

"The third quarter is likely to be below 5 percent. The momentum will only be there in the fourth quarter, but it needs to be strategically taken. Instead of waiting until Christmas to implement stimulus, it's better to start now," he said when met at Menara Danareksa, Central Jakarta, on Thursday, August 14, 2025.

According to Eko, the Christmas and New Year's period has the potential to significantly boost the economy, not only through the annual exodus of travelers, but also by encouraging public spending, especially in the regions. Consumption activities in the regions, such as buying local products, are believed to revive the local economy and positively impact national growth.

Nevertheless, he believes that the annual economic growth rate will likely remain below five percent. One of the biggest challenges is the limited stimulus funds. "There are many types of stimulus, but there is not enough money. The focus should be on three things only: improving purchasing power, creating job opportunities, and maintaining price stability. Let the market mechanism work for the rest," he explained.

Eko criticized the stimulus policies aimed at less strategic sectors. He gave an example of aid for entertainment activities, which can boost the economy, but its impact is not sustainable. Conversely, stimulus for the industrial sector will directly impact job creation and public purchasing power.

He also highlighted the issue of price stability, especially for rice prices. However, the government claimed that the national rice reserve had reached 4 million tons. "If the reserves are large, why are rice prices still rising? People consume rice from the market, not from the reserve warehouse. So, the price should be ensured to be stable," he emphasized.

With the right-targeted stimulus strategy, strengthening purchasing power, creating job opportunities, and controlling the prices of essential goods, Eko is optimistic that the economic growth in the fourth quarter could reach 5 percent. However, he emphasized that the full-year target is still unlikely to exceed that figure.

Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2039473/indef-doubts-indonesia-will-hit-5-economic-growth-targe