Max Lane – Throughout Indonesia on 22 August, thousands of students, workers, the urban poor and middle class people took to the streets to protest the passing of a law annulling a ruling of the Constitutional Court (MK) delivered two days prior. The passing of the Bill has been shelved, but there is a lingering suspicion among protestors that President Joko Widodo might try to resurrect it.
The MK's decision was a response to two cases brought to it. The first case was submitted by the Labour Party and the Indonesian People's Wave Party. In its ruling for this case, the Court reduced the threshold for political parties to nominate candidates for the elections of provincial and district executive heads: governors, mayors and residents (bupati). The elections for these positions are in November, one month after President Joko Widodo leaves office. Previously, only a party or a coalition of parties with 20 per cent of seats in local legislatures or 25 per cent of the vote could nominate candidates. The MK ruling reduced the threshold to between 6.5 per cent and 10 per cent depending on the population size of the electorate of votes. Under the new threshold, there is no obligation for parties to have won any seats.
Coalitions would no longer be necessary for some parties to nominate candidates in many provinces and districts.
Parties with no potential coalition partners, such as the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) which now stands outside the pro-Widodo coalition, would be able to stand candidates. For example, the PDI-P would able to put up a candidate by itself, as the new threshold is only 7 per cent of votes. Among the parties with seats in the various parliaments, the party would benefit most from the court ruling. There is a state of political war between the PDI-P and President Joko Widodo following the president's support for Prabowo Subianto's run for presidency against the PDI-P's candidate, Ganjar Pranowo. The sense of betrayal felt by the PDI-P leadership and membership is palpable, as Widodo was twice nominated by the party and was supposed to be a PDI-P member.
Second, in a second case brought by two students, the Court declined to change the age qualifications for candidates. The MK ruled that candidates have to be at least 30 years old at the time of running for elections. This was in contrast to an earlier Supreme Court ruling that the requirement would apply at the time of inauguration. This means that President Jokowi's youngest son Kaesang Pangerep would not be able to be a candidate for any gubernatorial race in November (he will only turn 30 in December). Many saw the president's political manoeuvres as part of a strategy to expand his political dynasty. He had placed his eldest son in a position to become vice president and helped his son-in-law Bobby Nasution to stand for governor of North Sumatra. The manoeuvre to help Kaesang obtain an executive position has only reinforced such perceptions.
Previously, the MK had decided to soften the age requirements for vice presidential candidates. This allowed Widodo's eldest son Gibran Raka to stand. The court decision was defended by the President and all the parties supporting Prabowo's candidacy. This was so even after an ethics panel deemed the decision to be ethically flawed because the Chief Justice, Widodo's brother-in-law, did not recuse himself from the case. This time, the MK decision would have made political life for Widodo more difficult. His supporters in parliament agreed to annul the MK decision through their own revisions to the election laws. This was decided within less than 48 hours of the court decision, with no public consultation or parliamentary debate.
The revisions of the law were supposed to have been passed on 22 August. In the end, the DPR session failed to meet so the Bill has not yet become law. It now appears that the Bill may be shelved completely.
No major political force called the demonstrations. In particular, the PDI-P did not call for the protests. Calls to demonstrate circulated through social media, often under the slogan "Indonesia Emergency". Student mobilisations from different campuses were visible in footage and photos on social media, but no particular groups, campuses, civil society alliances or unions dominated. Some PDI-P members mobilised but they were not visible in any high-profile manner.
Several factors can explain the momentum for the large-scale demonstrations. Widodo's manoeuvres to enable Gibran to become vice president had alienated civil society and a significant section of the public. With Jokowi's support, Prabowo won 58 per cent of the vote. This means that 42 per cent of voters were opposed to Prabowo and Widodo. Protest statements by university academics proliferated as did statements from NGOs and other groups. The documentary Dirty Vote, exposing Widodo's manoeuvres, garnered millions of views on YouTube.
Since Prabowo's win, Widodo's further manoeuvres have strengthened perceptions that he is building a political dynasty. These perceptions intensified when Widodo sought to replace the current Chairperson of the Golkar party, the second largest party in the Prabowo coalition, with a pro-Widodo ally.
The intensity of the protests cannot be understood without noting how public perception of Widodo has changed. Widodo's most recent behaviour has also projected an image of his behaviour as a "raja" (king). He has constantly been appearing at state ceremonies wearing traditional ethnic costumes of royalty, even copying the royal costumes of King Amungkurat. He appeared in another royal costume at the costly ceremony for Independence Day at the unfinished mega palace in the planned new national capital in Kalimantan (which is seen as a Widodo vanity project). His wife and children have been appearing more frequently in expensive clothing and jewellery, photos of which are now viral on social media. This is in contrast to the president's more down-to-earth appearances in the early phase of this presidency.
It is inevitable that anger at Widodo among significant sections of the population will increase. Demonstrations continue across the country. Picturing Widodo as Pinocchio, many people do not trust the government's announcement that it has shelved the controversial Bill. Currently, the widespread anger on the ground has no political leadership nor a stable organisational base. Only the PDI-P can provide this in the immediate term, but it is unclear whether it wishes to adopt such a strategy. Without leadership and a political vehicle, the protests may find it difficult to sustain themselves and grow.
[Max Lane is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. He has been an academic at the University of Sydney, Victoria University (Melbourne), Murdoch University and the National University of Singapore and has lectured at universities in Southeast Asia, Europe and the United States.]
Source: https://fulcrum.sg/dynastic-politics-provokes-nationwide-demonstrations