Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – With over two months still to go until his inauguration in October, president-elect Prabowo Subianto has nonetheless established good rapport with President Vladimir Putin, setting the tone for Indonesia-Russia bilateral ties during his Moscow visit early this month. During their meeting, Prabowo described Russia as a "great friend" and discussed the possibility of various cooperations.
Indonesia is moving closer to Russia on terms of global geopolitics, but whether this is coming at the expense of its ties with other countries, such as the United States or China, is something that will remain unknown until after his inauguration.
Since his victory in the 2024 presidential race was confirmed, Prabowo has already visited 10 countries: China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, France, Serbia, Turkey and Russia. Although these visits were made in his capacity as defense minister, they have also been billed as an introductory tour for Indonesia's next head of state.
This was evident in the former Army general's official welcome in these countries' by their heads of state as well as defense ministers. While defense featured prominently in these meetings, they also discussed wider bilateral and geopolitical issues.
Conspicuously missing from his itinerary is the US, although this may be more to do with scheduling issues ahead of that country's presidential election in November.
Another tricky question is whether Prabowo should meet with outgoing President Joe Biden or schedule his visit until after the winner of the November race is announced. In contrast, Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, whom Prabowo met in April, are both secure in their positions for the next few years.
Although Prabowo has pledged continuity as regards many of outgoing President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's policies, foreign policy might be one area where we can expect a major departure from his predecessor, if not in substance then definitely in style.
Compared to Jokowi, Prabowo at 72 has a much better grasp of the geopolitical landscape and how this might affect the national interests, given his military background, Western education and the past five years as defense minister.
While Jokowi would rather sit out international summits, Prabowo is likely to be a leader who is at ease in rubbing shoulders with his foreign counterparts. And while Jokowi has focused more on domestic policy during his presidency, Prabowo will likely champion foreign policy, judging by his many overseas visits since April.
We can also expect a shift in foreign policy priorities under a Prabowo administration.
Jokowi has emphasized economic ties as the key driver and instructed all ambassadors to focus on promoting trade and investment in their appointed missions. In contrast, Prabowo is likely to incorporate more defense and security aspects into Indonesian foreign policy, not only as a continuation of his programs as defense minister, but also because the current geopolitical landscape demands this. So we can expect to see greater alignment between the country's foreign and defense policies, rather than maintaining their separate trajectories as at present.
Indonesia's nonalignment and "active and independent" foreign policy principles mean that it must manage a fine balancing act in handling the escalating tension between China and the US. Under Jokowi, Indonesia leaned closer to China on the economy but closer to the US on security and defense issues.
It's unclear in which direction and to what extent Prabowo might alter Indonesia's foreign policy.
While China is the country's biggest trading partner, it is also viewed as a potential threat because of its overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. The Indonesian Military remains deeply suspicious of China's hegemonic stance, especially because of Beijing's historical support for the Indonesian Communist Party in the 1960s.
Prabowo's visit to Russia, which is closely aligned with China in the increasingly polarized world, has raised some guesses about Indonesia's foreign policy direction once he is sworn in as president in October.
Whoever he picks as his foreign minister, Prabowo is likely to take point as "chief diplomat" in shaping Indonesia's foreign policy.
What we've heard
A source close to Prabowo Subianto said Prabowo has visited several countries on behalf of President Joko Widodo. The purpose of these trips is to introduce Prabowo to friendly leaders. "Prabowo reported the results of his visits to Jokowi on August 2," the source said.
The source said Prabowo wants to be more active in international forums to show that he will be open to global issues during his leadership. "Diplomacy and international relations have not received much attention from President Jokowi," the source added.
So far, Prabowo has visited China, Japan, Malaysia, Turkey, France, Russia and Serbia. The source noted that there is a perception that Prabowo is not considering the United States. However, the source emphasized that Prabowo cannot ignore the United States in international politics. "Prabowo's visits don't seem to follow a clear pattern yet," the source said.
[This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia's political and business landscape.]