Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta – President-Elect Prabowo Subianto wants Indonesia to achieve growth beyond 7 percent, but economic think-tank Indef is skeptical about this target as history has shown his predecessors never reached those numbers.

Prabowo will take over the presidential job from the incumbent, two-term leader Joko "Jokowi" Widodo this October. While Prabowo is ambitious about his economic targets, Indef reported that Indonesia's average growth never topped 6 percent over the past decades.

"It is not easy for Indonesia's economy to expand 7 percent. Perhaps reaching 6 percent growth would be possible because we have seen it happen in the 'reformasi' [post-Soeharto] era. But 7 percent growth is an entirely different story," Indef deputy director Eko Listiyanto said in Jakarta on Tuesday.

In his 10 years in office, the Indonesian economic growth averaged 4.9 percent under Jokowi, who had ruled the country since 2014. Jokowi's predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, commonly referred to by his initials SBY, was also a two-term president. The average economic growth under SBY stood at 5.7 percent in 2004-2014. Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) even expanded 6.3 percent in 2007. Indonesia's first woman president Megawati Soekarnoputri – who held office in 2001-2004 – saw an annual average growth of 4.5 percent.

BJ Habibie served as president for about 17 months since May 1998, making his presidency the shortest in Indonesian history. The Indonesian economy expanded 0.8 percent in 1998. However, the numbers improved to 3.1 percent under his successor Gus Dur (1999-2001). Longest-serving president Soeharto posted the highest average growth rate, reaching 6.3 percent. The economy even grew a whopping 10.9 percent in 1968. Soeharto resigned as president in 1998 after being in office since 1967. The INDEF data did not include the founding father Soekarno's growth statistics.

"So if we stick to the current policy formulations, [I doubt we can achieve it]. We are now even already struggling to keep the 5-percent growth rate," Eko said.

He added: "That is why we [Indef] are keeping our economic projections for this year unchanged at 4.8 percent. Especially since the economy grew at only 5.11 percent in the first quarter."

The free school meal program is the cornerstone of Prabowo's policies. The president-elect has also said the program would not interrupt Indonesia's 3-percent budget deficit cap. During the presidential debate, Prabowo even said feeding school children could increase the country's economic growth by 2 percent, as it would absorb the crops and harvests of Indonesian farmers and fishermen.

Prabowo will also bank on Jokowi's strategy of domestically processing the country's natural resources to produce higher value-added goods. When speaking at the recent Qatar Economic Forum, Prabowo said he was confident of having the economy grow 8 percent in the first three years of his presidency. He cited biodiesel production as one of the key drivers to this growth as it will help cut down Indonesia's diesel oil imports.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/business/prabowos-7-pct-growth-ambition-will-be-hard-to-achieve-thinktan