Muhammad Ghafur Fadillah, Jakarta – The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry of Indonesia has set a target for oil and gas production for 2025, aiming around 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalents per day (BOEPD).
Minister Arifin Tasrif also projected the Indonesia Crude Price (ICP) to range between $75 and $85 per barrel in the 2025 State Budget (APBN) draft.
"Considering the realization up to May 2024 and the 2024 outlook, the proposed oil and gas lifting in the RAPBN 2025 is set at 1.583-1.648 million BOEPD," said Arifin during a working meeting with Commission VII of the House of Representatives (DPR) at the DPR building in Jakarta on Wednesday.
Arifin detailed that the proposed target for 2025 includes crude oil lifting of 580,000 to 601,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) and natural gas lifting of 1.003 million to 1.047 million BOEPD. As of May 2024, the realization of oil and condensate reached 557,800 BOPD, achieving 91 percent of the 635,000 BOPD target.
Additionally, cost recovery up to May 2024 amounted to $2.51 billion, with a 2024 outlook of $8.26 billion. For the RAPBN 2025, cost recovery is proposed to be between $8.6 billion and $8.7 billion.
Meanwhile, the ICP for 2025 is set between $75 and $85 per barrel. The ICP up to May 2024 stands at $81.67 per barrel, with a 2024 outlook of $82 per barrel.
Arifin mentioned several factors influencing the ICP estimate. First, polling by Reuters and the Short-Term Energy Outlook from the United States Energy Information Administration-Department of Energy predicts global oil prices in 2025 to range from $80.46 to $87.79 per barrel.
Second, the production agreements by OPEC+ countries, which control nearly 40 of global oil production. Third, the strengthening of the US dollar against several currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah.
"Additionally, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East," Arifin added.