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Indonesia 'very unlikely' to fall into recession: Jokowi

Jakarta Globe - February 28, 2024

Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta – Unlike Germany and the US, it is very unlikely for Indonesia to slip into a recession, President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo said on Wednesday.

Speaking before Indonesia's senior military officials, Jokowi said that the world's major economies were on the brink of a recession. Jokowi claimed that Germany and the US were facing a double-digit probability of recession, while Indonesia's chances were still less than 2 percent.

"Many countries have fallen into recession, including the UK and Japan. Recession also looms for other major countries. For instance, Germany's recession probability stands at 72 percent, the European Union's probability is at 60 percent," Jokowi said in Jakarta on Wednesday.

"The probability of the US falling into recession reaches 40 percent. We have to be grateful because [Indonesia's recession] probability is at 1.5 percent. We need to keep this up," Jokowi said.

According to Jokowi, Indonesia's economy grew at 5.05 percent in 2023. The poverty rate dropped from 11.1 percent in 2015 to 9.3 percent last year. The unemployment rate also went down from 6.1 percent to 5.3 percent over the same period.

The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showed that Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2023, after contracting 0.1 percent in July-September. Japan's economy shrank at an annual pace of 0.4 percent in October-December 2023 after it contracted 2.9 percent in the third quarter.

The US reported that its fourth real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter. Germany's GDP fell by 0.3 percent in the final three months of 2023.

The World Bank puts Indonesia's economic growth forecast at 4.9 percent for 2024. This is a slight decline compared to the 5 percent the previous year.

A country is typically considered to be in a recession if it faces two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesia-very-unlikely-to-fall-into-recession-jokow