Jakarta – The recent presidential poll conducted by Australia's research company, Roy Morgan, presents Ganjar Pranowo as the clear frontrunner for the February 2024 Indonesian presidential election. This contrasts with the majority of Indonesian pollsters who have identified Prabowo Subianto as the leading candidate.

Renowned researcher Denny Januar Ali explained on Saturday that there's nothing suspicious or inaccurate with Roy Morgan's poll. In fact, it aligns with the findings of most local research firms.

"The only thing you need to check is when the Roy Morgan survey was conducted," Denny said.

The latest Roy Morgan survey was conducted from July to September, with the results released on December 12. The poll reveals Ganjar leading by eight percentage points over Prabowo, and a significant 13 points over the third candidate, Anies Rasyid Baswedan.

Denny said that in September, polls from the majority of leading Indonesian research firms also positioned Ganjar as the early frontrunner.

However, the political landscape shifted significantly in October when Prabowo selected Gibran Rakabuming Raka, President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's eldest son, as his running mate. This move catapulted Prabowo's popularity, causing Ganjar's numbers to decline. A December survey by renowned media group Kompas even placed Ganjar third, with Prabowo and Gibran holding a two-digit lead.

Denny pointed out that Roy Morgan's latest survey failed to capture crucial moments in the election buildup as it was conducted before all candidates officially announced their running mates.

"It's important to check the timeline of Roy Morgan's survey, as cited in its publication," Denny said. "We cannot draw a parallel between outdated data in September and our findings in December."

Denny argued that Ganjar's popularity began to erode after his camp intensified attacks on President Jokowi, while his support base depended largely on the perception that he is the defender of the president's legacy.

Ganjar's candidacy is backed by the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which also helped Jokowi win two presidential terms.

However, some of Jokowi's supporters shifted allegiance to Prabowo due to his alliance with the president's son.

Denny said the significant shifts in the political landscape were not reflected in Roy Morgan's survey conducted earlier.

"It raises questions about why outdated data from September was published in December," Denny concluded.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/news/researcher-explains-discrepancy-in-roy-morgans-presidential-poll-result