Jessicha Valentina, Jakarta – The Health Ministry has prepared three scenarios to anticipate a spike in COVID-19 cases following the cuti bersama (collective leave) from Oct. 28 to Nov. 1.
National COVID-19 task force spokesperson Wiku Adisasmito, who is also the expert team coordinator, said on Tuesday that COVID-19 referral hospitals could accommodate an increase of between 20 and 50 percent in new patients, as the current bed occupancy rate averaged 50 percent.
However, if new cases surged between 50 and 100 percent, the government planned to expand capacity by converting the hospitals' outpatient facilities into rooms for treating COVID-19 patients.
In the worst-case scenario of a surge of over 100 percent, Wiku said that the government would set up emergency tents at the hospitals' COVID-19 treatment facilities. In addition, the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) would collaborate with the Indonesian Military (TNI) to establish emergency hospitals in the vicinity of referral hospitals.
The scenarios were developed based on the earlier surges in new COVID-19 cases across the country following the cuti bersama during Idul Fitri in May and Independence Day in August.
Wiku said last month that the long holidays in May and August had caused Indonesia's positivity rate to increase to 3.9 percent.
For example, he said, Indonesia recorded an increase of between 69 and 93 percent in its daily and weekly average of new COVID-19 cases, 10 to 14 days after the long Idul Fitri holiday. Similarly, 10 to 14 days after the long Independence Day weekend from Aug. 20 to 23, Indonesia saw a surge of between 58 and 118 percent in daily and weekly average of new COVID-19 cases.
Prior to last week's cuti bersama, the task force implemented several measures in collaboration with the central government and local administrations, including launching the quarantine supervision program, issuing the electronic health alert card and installing facilities and equipment at ports and airports to support the coronavirus health protocols.
"We have also implemented anticipatory measures at the hospitals. [We] are coordinating with local health agencies and [health] facilities and have readied facilities and infrastructure at [referral] hospitals," Wiku said.
He also expressed the hope that the public would respond honestly when the government was tracing contacts. Wiku stressed that honesty was key to identifying close contacts and to ensuring that any infected people would receive early, proper treatment.
He also urged people who had traveled during the holiday to get tested, and suggested anyone who tested positive to seek treatment at the nearest government-approved health facility.
"Follow the health workers' recommendations so the treatment will be effective and [we can] reduce the number of deaths," he said. (jes)