Heru Andriyanto, Jakarta – A steady decline in newly cases of coronavirus in the last few weeks may suggest that Indonesia has been past its peak, although no confirmation has come from health authorities.

The rate of growth in monthly total reached its lowest in October while the seven-day average has been declining from more than 4,300 cases in late September to just around 3,300 on Sunday – the lowest weekly average since Sept. 10.

Moreover, the percentage of active cases has been falling significantly in the last few weeks.

Indonesia has recorded 2,696 cases in the last 24 hours, the lowest single-day total in more than two months, to take the country's total to 412,784.

The total number of active cases stands at 56,899, representing only 13.8 percent of the overall cases. Three weeks ago, Indonesia recorded around 65,000 active cases of the virus.

For the fourth day in a row, the number of cured or discharged Covid patients has beaten that of newly cases. Nearly 342,000 Covid patients have recovered since the outbreak began, accounting for 82.8 percent of overall cases.

The virus has killed 13,943 people in Indonesia, putting the fatality rate at 3.4 percent of overall cases. Sunday's 74 coronavirus-related deaths were the lowest daily death toll since Sept. 13.

Ease in Jakarta

The downward trend in newly cases owes largely to falling numbers in Jakarta, home to more than 25 percent of nationwide cases.

The capital has recorded just 608 cases in the 24-hour period, the lowest daily total since August 22. It's also for the eighth day in a row that the daily number has been falling below 1,000.

Jakarta has a total of 106,205 cases, 62 percent of which have occurred in the September-October period when newly cases in the city were peaking with an average of more than 1,000. With 2,270 Covid-19 deaths, Jakarta has among the lowest fatality rate in proportion to overall cases.

East Java is at a distant second with a total of 52,718 cases, including 3,776 deaths. It has among the lowest ratio of active cases to reported cases, but tops the national fatality rate with 7.2 percent of overall cases.

The surge is slowing in the province but daily numbers have never been fewer than 200 since Sept. 1.

West Java reported the lowest daily number of cases in three weeks, with another 245 cases for a total of 36,583. The province of 50 million has the second-highest average of newly cases after Jakarta and added more than 14,000 cases in October alone.

A spike in newly cases continued in Central Java with 458 more cases, a day after it saw a new high of 617, to take the province's total to 34,370, including 1,756 deaths.

South Sulawesi reported just 25 new cases, the fourth day in row its daily number is below 50, bringing the total number of cases to 18,370. Despite a steady decline in newly cases, it remains in the top five of worst-affected provinces mainly because it was hit badly by the virus early on.

Surge in West Sumatra

Among other hotspots, only West Sumatra and East Kalimantan came out with three-digit daily numbers.

West Sumatra added 225 cases for a total of 14,762 and is in a striking distance to overtake Riau in the sixth place.

East Kalimantan registered 168 new cases to take its total to 14,259.

Riau reported only 31 cases in the day for a total of 14,830. The last time the oil-rich province reported a two-digit daily number was on Sept. 1.

West Sumatra currently has among the highest number of active cases, totaling 3,983, while neighboring Riau has 3,159 active cases.

Even East Kalimantan has more active cases than East Java, 2,522 against 2,241.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/news/weekly-trend-suggests-indonesia-is-past-its-coronavirus-pea