James Massola and Karuni Rompies – Indonesia's coronavirus case count could double to more than 60,000 infections in the next two weeks as testing becomes more widespread, according to Professor Amin Soebandrio, the director of Jakarta's Eijkman Institute of Microbiology.
Australia's near neighbour recorded more than 1000 cases for two days in a row, a new record, a little more than two weeks after the major religious holiday of Idul Fitri. The spike in cases has prompted epidemiologists to call on the national government to rethink the easing of social restrictions.
While Indonesia's south-east Asian neighbours such as Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore appear to have the spread of the virus relatively under control, judging by the daily case numbers, Indonesia's infection rates are still climbing.
In the last two weeks, the country's health department has only once recorded fewer than 500 new daily cases. Case number records were made on Saturday, with 993 cases, then broken Tuesday with 1,043 and Wednesday with 1,241. On Thursday, another 979 infections were reported – just shy of the daily record.
A nation of nearly 270 million people, Indonesia has tested 463,620 samples from a little more than 290,000 people and has reported 35,295 infections, with 2000 deaths – the highest death toll in south-east Asia.
Amin, whose institute conducts coronavirus tests and is also involved in an effort to develop a vaccine, said he expected the number of daily cases in Indonesia to keep rising "because we are trying to reach 20,000 or 30,0000 tests per day, as expressed by the President".
Authorities in Indonesia are using drones and fire engines to spray disinfectant in the street in a bid to tackle coronavirus, against the advice of health experts.
"If the number of new cases reaches 2000 per day in the next two weeks, we could expect another 30,000 [cases, taking the tally to over 60,000 infections]."
Amin said the number of cases was rising in Indonesia because testing rates had increased, contact tracing was more widespread and the national reporting system had improved.
"Yes, probably Lebaran [another name for Idul Fitri] and mudik had some impact too, in some areas, although we have no scientific evidence for that."
Idul Fitri, held on May 24 and 25 this year, brings together families across the country, as millions return home from major population centres such as the capital, Jakarta.
President Joko Widodo's government prevaricated for weeks before banning mudik, the return home, to slow the spread of the virus across the country, but an estimated 1.6 million people left Jakarta for their villages, despite warnings of a potential spike in case numbers.
Yet some provinces, including Jakarta, have now begun easing some restrictions designed to stop the spread of the disease under a so-called "new normal" policy introduced by the President to kick-start the economy.
Mosques, churches and other houses of worship are reopening, shops and shopping centres in some cities are slated to open their doors on June 15, domestic flights are resuming and public transport is moving again.
Panji Hadisoemarto, an epidemiologist based at Padjajaran University in Bandung, agreed the surge in cases was due to increased testing rates, more contact tracing and "the impact of Lebaran. I actually expected these cases to be found about two weeks after Lebaran but perhaps there was a little delay in testing so that it is only known now."
Hadisoemarto did not think the surge could be attributed to the recent wind back of restrictions, but he did think it was far too soon for Indonesia to relax its lockdown measures.
"The decision to loosen restrictions was made on June 4 and a few weeks before it Jakarta's figures looked stable. But now the numbers are quite high. Yes, I can say it is too soon [to ease restrictions] knowing there are still many cases out there."
Restrictions had slammed the breaks on the country's growth, which slowed from about 5 per cent to just under 3 per cent in the first quarter of 2020.
It is forecast to slow further and for tens of millions of Indonesians working in the informal economy, that is bad news.