Erwida Maulia, Jakarta – The declaration of a "permanent coalition" by presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto and the seven political parties supporting his bid has prompted at least two questions: First, why the hurry to issue such a decision, and second, will it survive after the July 22 announcement of the official results of last week's election?

The seven parties are Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), the Golkar Party, the Democratic Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the United Development Party (PPP) and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) – although the last will have no seats at the new House of Representatives that convenes in September, having failed to reach the parliamentary threshold in the April 9 legislative poll.

The declaration binding the parties to Prabowo was made at the Proklamasi monument in Central Jakarta on Monday, with the chairmen of all the parties – except, tellingly, the Democrats – signing the agreement, with Prabowo there to witness the event.

Such a signing – and such a declaration – are unprecedented in Indonesian political history. In 2009, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono signed a similar agreement, called the "coalition contract," with the chairmen of the six parties that supported his re-election bid, but only after the General Elections Commission (KPU) had declared him the official winner of the election that year.

The pact essentially marked the coalition's agreement to continue their partnership beyond the election, and the six parties have remained members of the ruling coalition through Yudhoyono's second term in office.

Prabowo's declaration, though, was made before the KPU had announced the results of this year's election, expected by July 22, thus raising the question: Why the rush to do so?

Is Prabowo so confident of his victory? Only four pollsters, some with a checkered track record, called the election for Prabowo based on quick counts, while eight, including several of the most highly regarded surveyors, handed victory to Joko Widodo.

The PKS is also claiming victory for Prabowo, citing the result of its own "real count." But KPU has emphasized that both sides must wait for the official tally before either can claim victory.

The move may be an attempt by Prabowo's camp to give voters, and particularly their supporters, the impression that they are confident of winning, and that any other result announced by the KPU next week would be unprecedented.

But latest moves by at least two members of the Gerindra-led coalition – Golkar and the Democrats – may simply mean that Prabowo feels the need to bind his coalition with more powerful ties in order to prevent any of the parties from straying to Joko's own coalition.

Golkar's endorsement of Prabowo was a last-minute decision, made just hours after the party handed chairman Aburizal Bakrie the "full mandate" to decide the course of the party's alignment at its congress in May, after a poor showing in the April 9 legislative election left without it enough votes to nominate its own presidential candidate.

Aburizal quickly headed to the home of Megawati Soekarnoputri, the chairwoman of Joko's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), where he was reportedly rebuffed. He then scurried off to Prabowo. They next day, May 19, as Prabowo and Joko registered their bids with the KPU, Golkar officially joined Prabowo's army.

But many Golkar members were intent on backing Joko, who picked as his running mate Jusuf Kalla, the Golkar chairman from 2004 to 2009, and a far more popular figure in the party than Aburizal. The latter responded by firing party members known to support Joko.

But now with the majority of quick counts pointing to a win by Joko, calls for Golkar to switch sides are mounting.

Agung Laksono, a Golkar deputy chairman, recently suggested that the party would indeed cross over to Joko's camp, citing its history as a government party that has never served in the opposition.

"One of Golkar's programs is supporting the government. So if Jokowi becomes the president and J.K. [Kalla] the vice president, then we will support them," Agung told Metrotvnews.com.

The Democrats' commitment to Prabowo has also been questioned after Yudhoyono, the party chairman, failed to attend Monday's declaration signing. The Democrats were instead represented by the head of their Jakarta chapter.

Analysts are predicting that if Joko wins, as expected, the "permanent coalition" will prove not very permanent at all. "Golkar has never been outside the circle of power," said Haryadi, a political scientist at Surabaya's Airlangga University.

"I suspect there will be some hustle and bustle leading to the replacement of the chairman [Aburizal] by moving forward an extraordinary congress intended to attach [Golkar] to the new power [Joko]."

Other parties also look likely to abandon Prabowo's ship. Dimyati Natakusumah, a deputy chairman of the PPP, said his party was ready to join the Joko's camp if the candidate became president. "If we're asked to join, then we'll be in," he told Tempo.co. "Besides, if we're in the government, we'll be able to work directly with the community."

Source: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/permanent-coalition-seen-already-wavering/